Brock Purdy's passing touchdown props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 37.5% of overs across 16 games with a brutal -28.4% ROI on the over side. His 1.38 average falls consistently short of the typical 1.5 line, creating sustainable value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Purdy's touchdown limitations in home games at Levi's Stadium. His 6-10 over/under record isn't just bad luck—it reflects systematic factors that consistently suppress his touchdown production. The 49ers' offensive philosophy at home often emphasizes ball control and field position over explosive passing plays, particularly when they can rely on their defense and running game to control tempo. Purdy's 1.38 touchdown average creates a meaningful 0.12 gap below the standard 1.5 line, which might seem small but represents an 8% edge that compounds over time. The brutal -28.4% ROI on overs suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to this home/road split, creating ongoing value. Most concerning for over bettors is the demonstrated consistency—Purdy has recorded an eight-game under streak, showing this isn't variance but a persistent pattern. The 49ers' home game script often involves early leads that shift toward conservative play-calling, limiting Purdy's need for multiple touchdown passes. While his recent Super Bowl run elevated expectations, the underlying home dynamics remain unchanged, with Kyle Shanahan's system prioritizing efficiency over volume when playing with favorable field position and crowd support.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 37.5% over rate and devastating -28.4% ROI on overs creates a clear systematic edge that the market hasn't corrected. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, especially in games where San Francisco projects as home favorites. The primary risk is garbage-time touchdowns in blowout wins, but Purdy's eight-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in this spot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brock Purdy's Passing TDs prop record home games?
Brock Purdy's passing touchdown props in home games show a clear under trend with a 6-10-0 record (37.5% overs). He's averaged just 1.38 touchdowns per home game against typical 1.5 lines, creating consistent value on the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brock Purdy Passing TDs home games?
Bet under on Brock Purdy's passing touchdowns in home games. The 37.5% over rate and -28.4% ROI on overs, combined with his 1.38 average versus 1.5 lines, creates a high-confidence systematic edge favoring unders.
What's Brock Purdy's average Passing TDs home games?
Brock Purdy averages 1.38 passing touchdowns in home games, falling 0.12 touchdowns short of the typical 1.5 line. This 8% gap below market expectations has proven consistent across 16 games, creating measurable betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brock Purdy touchdown unders when San Francisco is favored at home, especially with lines at 1.5 or higher. The 49ers' conservative home scripts and Purdy's eight-game under streak make these spots particularly profitable.