Brock Purdy's passing touchdown props present a clear under opportunity with a 46.9% over rate across 32 games. Despite averaging 1.62 touchdowns against a typical 1.5 line, the -10.5% ROI on overs versus +1.4% on unders reveals consistent market overvaluation. The data strongly favors betting under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Brock Purdy's touchdown production being systematically overvalued by the betting market. While Purdy averages 1.62 passing touchdowns per game—slightly above the standard 1.5 line—this modest differential masks the true betting opportunity. The 53.1% under rate demonstrates that books consistently set lines too optimistically, likely influenced by Purdy's efficient reputation and the 49ers' offensive weapons. The -10.5% ROI on overs is particularly damning, suggesting that even when Purdy hits the over, the juice and line movement work against bettors. San Francisco's balanced offensive approach, featuring a strong running game with Christian McCaffrey and emphasis on YAC rather than red zone passing, naturally limits Purdy's touchdown ceiling. The team's methodical, possession-based style often results in field goals rather than passing scores in scoring position. Additionally, Kyle Shanahan's play-calling tends to favor running plays near the goal line, further capping Purdy's touchdown upside. The consistency of this trend across 32 games suggests structural factors rather than random variance, making this a sustainable betting edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 53.1% under rate and positive ROI create a legitimate edge, though the small sample and Purdy's slight statistical advantage over the line prevent higher conviction. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, particularly in games where San Francisco projects to control pace and lean on their ground game. Main risk is increased passing volume if the 49ers fall behind early.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
Compare Brock Purdy props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brock Purdy's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Brock Purdy has gone under his passing touchdowns prop in 17 of 32 games (53.1%) while going over 15 times. His overall record shows unders hitting at a profitable 53.1% clip with a positive 1.4% ROI compared to overs' -10.5% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brock Purdy Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Brock Purdy's passing touchdowns props. The 53.1% under rate and positive ROI create a clear edge, especially when the line is set at 1.5 or higher. The market consistently overvalues his touchdown production despite San Francisco's balanced offensive approach.
What's Brock Purdy's average Passing TDs all games?
Brock Purdy averages 1.62 passing touchdowns per game, which is 0.12 touchdowns above the typical 1.5 line. However, this slight edge is negated by the market's tendency to overprice his touchdown props, making unders the superior betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brock Purdy passing touchdown unders when the line is 1.5 or higher, particularly in games where San Francisco projects to control the pace. Avoid betting when the 49ers are significant underdogs and may need to throw more frequently in catch-up situations.