Brandon Aiyuk has been a betting graveyard with just 1 over in 10 games (10.0% rate), averaging 52.3 receiving yards against a 62.7 line. The 10.4-yard differential and devastating -80.9% over ROI make this a clear under trend worth riding.
Expert Analysis
Aiyuk's receiving yards collapse represents one of the most reliable under trends in the NFL, driven by San Francisco's evolved offensive identity and his diminished target share. The 49ers have increasingly leaned on their rushing attack and short-game distribution, leaving Aiyuk with fewer high-value targets downfield. His 52.3-yard average sits a full touchdown below typical lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced role in Kyle Shanahan's system. The seven-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency, indicating structural rather than variance-driven issues. Aiyuk's target quality has declined as defenses focus on limiting explosive plays, forcing San Francisco into methodical drives that favor running backs and tight ends. The 71.8% under ROI reflects not just frequency but the magnitude of his shortfalls, often finishing 15-20 yards below projections. While regression always looms for extreme trends, Aiyuk's underlying usage metrics support continued under performance. His snap rate remains high, but route distribution has shifted toward shorter patterns, capping his ceiling. The 49ers' commitment to ball control and time management further limits explosive opportunities that drive receiving yard overs.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Aiyuk's structural role change in San Francisco's offense makes this trend sustainable rather than due for regression. The 90% under rate over 10 games reflects genuine usage decline, not bad luck. Target this prop when lines exceed 60 yards, as oddsmakers consistently overvalue his name recognition. Primary risk is a potential blowout game forcing increased passing volume, but even then, Aiyuk's target share limits upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 57.5 | 23.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 64.5 | 37.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 59.5 | 147.0 | +87.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 56.5 | 48.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 75.5 | 48.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 59.5 | 43.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 48.5 | 28.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 60.5 | 49.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 76.5 | 68.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 68.5 | 32.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Aiyuk's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Aiyuk has gone over his receiving yards prop just once in his last 10 games, posting a dismal 10.0% over rate. He's averaging 52.3 yards against lines typically set around 62.7, creating a consistent 10.4-yard shortfall that has burned over bettors repeatedly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Aiyuk's receiving yards props with high confidence. His 90% under rate over 10 games reflects genuine role reduction in San Francisco's offense, not variance. The -80.9% over ROI demonstrates both frequency and magnitude of his shortfalls, making unders profitable.
What's Brandon Aiyuk's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Aiyuk is averaging just 52.3 receiving yards over his last 10 games, falling 10.4 yards short of the typical 62.7 line. This massive differential represents one of the most consistent under trends among prominent receivers, driven by reduced target share and quality.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aiyuk under props when lines exceed 60 yards, as books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished role. Avoid in potential shootouts against weak run defenses where San Francisco might abandon their ground-heavy approach, but standard game scripts heavily favor continued under performance.