Brandin Cooks has delivered modest but consistent value on reception overs, hitting 60.0% with a 6-4-0 record over his last 10 games. The +14.6% ROI on overs reflects steady outperformance of his 3.1 average line, though the edge is narrow at just +0.1 per game. Lean over with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
Cooks' reception trend reveals a veteran receiver finding his rhythm within Dallas's offensive system, though the margins remain razor-thin. His 3.2 average receptions barely eclipse the typical 3.1 line, suggesting oddsmakers have calibrated fairly accurately to his current role. The 60% over rate indicates genuine outperformance rather than random variance, particularly given the current three-game over streak that follows a four-game under stretch. This pattern suggests Cooks benefits from increased target share when Dallas faces tougher defensive matchups or trailing game scripts that demand more passing volume. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates real profit potential despite modest per-game edges. However, the -23.6% under ROI warns against fading this trend, as Cooks' floor appears higher than anticipated. His veteran route-running and reliable hands create a stable target for Dak Prescott, especially on shorter routes that generate receptions even in lower-volume passing games. The narrow differential suggests this edge could evaporate quickly with line adjustments, making timing crucial for extracting value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Cooks' 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate genuine outperformance of market expectations, supported by his reliable target share in Dallas's passing attack. The current three-game over streak suggests momentum, while his veteran presence provides a stable floor. Primary risk lies in the narrow +0.1 differential that could disappear with minor line adjustments or game script variations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandin Cooks's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Brandin Cooks has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0% rate) with a 6-4-0 over/under record. He's currently riding a three-game over streak after a four-game under stretch earlier in the sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandin Cooks Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Cooks' receptions props. His 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI demonstrate consistent outperformance of market lines. The narrow edge requires selective betting, but the trend shows genuine value for patient bettors.
What's Brandin Cooks's average Receptions last 10 games?
Cooks averages 3.2 receptions over his last 10 games compared to a typical line of 3.1, creating a modest +0.1 differential. This small but consistent edge has generated positive returns for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooks reception overs in competitive games where Dallas likely trails or faces strong run defenses. His veteran reliability shines in higher-volume passing situations, though avoid when lines adjust above 3.5 receptions.