Brandin Cooks has hit the over on his receiving yards prop just 50% of the time over his last 10 games, averaging 29.1 yards against lines averaging 33.8. Despite a recent three-game over streak, the Cowboys veteran consistently falls short of market expectations by nearly five yards per game.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of market overconfidence in Brandin Cooks' current role within Dallas's offensive scheme. At 29.1 yards per game against an average line of 33.8, Cooks is consistently priced as if he's still the primary target he once was, but the reality reflects a veteran receiver whose snap share and target volume have diminished significantly. The 4.7-yard negative differential isn't just bad luck—it represents a fundamental disconnect between perception and production. While his recent three-game over streak might suggest positive momentum, this follows a five-game under streak that better represents his season-long struggles. The Cowboys' offensive identity has shifted toward their running game and shorter passing concepts, leaving Cooks as more of a complementary piece than the featured receiver books continue to price him as. His advanced age and reduced athletic profile make it increasingly difficult to generate the explosive plays needed to consistently clear these inflated lines. The even 50% over rate masks the fact that his unders have been more decisive, with the overs often barely clearing by small margins while the unders represent clear misses.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The persistent 4.7-yard negative differential against market lines represents genuine value, as books haven't adequately adjusted to Cooks' diminished role in Dallas's offense. Target this prop when lines exceed 32 yards, particularly in games where the Cowboys project to lean heavily on their ground attack. The primary risk is his veteran savvy occasionally producing one explosive catch that salvages an otherwise quiet performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 34.5 | 52.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 30.5 | 48.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 27.5 | 34.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-09 | OPP | 26.5 | 3.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 23.5 | 16.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 36.5 | 16.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 36.5 | 16.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 46.5 | 19.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 36.5 | 40.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 39.5 | 47.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandin Cooks's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Brandin Cooks has gone 5-5-0 on his receiving yards over/under in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. He's averaged 29.1 receiving yards per game against lines averaging 33.8 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Brandin Cooks receiving yards props. He's consistently falling short of market expectations by 4.7 yards per game, indicating books haven't properly adjusted to his reduced role in Dallas's offense.
What's Brandin Cooks's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Brandin Cooks has averaged 29.1 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to average prop lines of 33.8 yards. This 4.7-yard negative differential represents consistent value on the under.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brandin Cooks receiving yards unders when lines exceed 32 yards, especially in games where Dallas projects to run heavily or face strong pass defenses that limit big-play opportunities for aging receivers.