Bo Nix's rushing yards props have hit the over in 60% of his last 10 games, generating a solid +14.6% ROI for over bettors. The rookie quarterback is currently riding a five-game over streak, though he's averaging just 21.4 yards against a 23.0 line. This presents a lean over opportunity with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
Bo Nix's rushing production tells the story of a mobile rookie quarterback finding his legs in the NFL. The 60% over rate across his last 10 games reflects Denver's evolving offensive identity, with Sean Payton increasingly incorporating designed runs and RPOs to maximize Nix's dual-threat ability. The current five-game over streak suggests momentum, but the -1.6 yard differential between his average (21.4) and typical line (23.0) reveals books are pricing him efficiently. What makes this trend compelling is the positive ROI despite the modest yardage gap, indicating Nix consistently exceeds expectations in key spots. His rushing production likely correlates with game script and opponent strength - mobile quarterbacks typically run more when trailing or facing pressure. The rookie's comfort level has visibly improved as the season progressed, leading to more decisive scrambles and designed keeper calls. However, regression concerns loom given the small sample size and the fact that his actual average trails the betting line. Denver's playoff positioning could also influence play-calling, potentially reducing designed runs to minimize injury risk. The sustainability of this over trend depends heavily on continued offensive evolution and Nix's growing confidence as a runner.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The five-game over streak and positive ROI suggest genuine momentum rather than random variance. Nix's rushing production appears tied to his growing comfort level and Denver's offensive adaptation. Target overs when Denver faces defensive pressure or trails early, as these scenarios historically increase quarterback rushing attempts. Main risk is the -1.6 yard deficit to his typical line, indicating books have adjusted to his recent production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 29.5 | 43.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 19.5 | 47.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 21.5 | 31.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 21.5 | 25.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 16.5 | 23.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-02 | OPP | 19.5 | 4.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 20.5 | 5.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 28.5 | 5.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 27.5 | -5.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 25.5 | 36.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bo Nix's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Bo Nix has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate), currently riding a five-game over streak. His 6-4-0 record has generated +14.6% ROI for over bettors during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bo Nix Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Bo Nix rushing yards props. The five-game over streak and positive ROI indicate genuine momentum, with his mobile skill set increasingly featured in Denver's offense. Target spots where game script favors quarterback runs.
What's Bo Nix's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bo Nix averages 21.4 rushing yards over his last 10 games against a typical line of 23.0 yards, creating a -1.6 yard differential. Despite this gap, overs have still hit 60% of the time with positive ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bo Nix rushing yards overs when Denver faces defensive pressure or trails early in games. These scenarios historically increase quarterback scrambling and designed runs, maximizing his dual-threat capabilities within the offensive system.