Bijan Robinson has demolished rushing yards props with an 8-2 over record (80%) across his last 10 games, averaging 97.3 yards against a 76.9 line for a massive +20.4 differential. Currently riding a six-game over streak with +52.7% ROI on overs, this represents a clear LEAN OVER opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's rushing yards dominance stems from Atlanta's evolving offensive identity and his expanded workload as the season progressed. The 20.4-yard average differential above the closing line isn't just variance—it reflects sportsbooks consistently undervaluing his floor in an offense that has increasingly leaned on establishing the ground game. The six-game over streak coincides with Atlanta's playoff push, where they've prioritized ball control and Robinson's versatility. His 97.3-yard average suggests books are still pricing him as a complementary back rather than the focal point he's become. The 80% over rate across 10 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the -61.8% under ROI demonstrates how punishing fading this trend has been. However, regression risk exists as books adjust lines upward, and Atlanta's offensive game scripts could shift if they face negative game flow situations. The trend's persistence through different matchups and game situations suggests legitimate skill-based outperformance rather than schedule luck, making continued over performance likely until books fully correct their pricing model.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 20.4-yard differential above closing lines reflects genuine undervaluation by sportsbooks who haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Atlanta's ground-heavy attack. The six-game streak and 80% over rate provide strong momentum, ideal when Atlanta controls game script. Main risk is books overcorrecting lines upward, potentially eliminating value on future props.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 98.5 | 170.0 | +71.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 85.5 | 90.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 88.5 | 94.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 83.5 | 125.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 64.5 | 92.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 76.5 | 102.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 65.5 | 35.0 | -30.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 70.5 | 116.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 71.5 | 86.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 64.5 | 63.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bijan Robinson's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Robinson has gone over his rushing yards prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80% rate), averaging 97.3 yards against a 76.9 average line. He's currently on a six-game over streak with a +20.4 yard differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Robinson's rushing yards props. His 80% over rate and 20.4-yard average differential above the line shows sportsbooks are undervaluing his production in Atlanta's ground-heavy offense, creating consistent betting value.
What's Bijan Robinson's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Robinson averages 97.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to a 76.9 average prop line, creating a significant +20.4 yard differential. This gap represents genuine value as books underestimate his expanded workload.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson rushing yards overs when Atlanta is favored or in close games where they can establish the run. His trend is strongest in controlled game scripts where the Falcons can lean on their ground game.