Bijan Robinson's rushing yards props show marginal over value at home with a 52.9% over rate (9-8-0 record) and averaging 73.76 yards versus a 70.32 line. The +3.4 yard differential provides slight edge, though the modest +1.1% ROI suggests careful selection is crucial.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's home rushing performance reveals a player who consistently exceeds modest expectations, though not by overwhelming margins. The 73.76 yard average against a 70.32 line represents legitimate value, particularly when considering Atlanta's offensive philosophy at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons have shown increased willingness to establish the ground game in familiar surroundings, where Robinson benefits from crowd energy and comfort with field conditions. His current five-game over streak demonstrates recent momentum, though regression remains possible given the relatively tight margins. The key driver appears to be Atlanta's home game script tendency to maintain balanced offensive attacks rather than abandoning the run in negative game situations. Robinson's workload consistency at home, combined with the Falcons' improved offensive line play in familiar conditions, creates a sustainable edge. However, the modest ROI differential warns against blindly backing overs. Weather conditions, opponent run defense rankings, and potential negative game scripts remain significant variables. The longest under streak of just three games suggests Robinson rarely disappears completely at home, making severe underperformance less likely than gradual regression to the mean.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's +3.4 yard home differential over his betting line creates legitimate value, especially with his current five-game over momentum. Target games where Atlanta projects to stay competitive and weather conditions favor ground games. Primary risk is the modest ROI margin leaving little room for error in game script predictions.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 98.5 | 170.0 | +71.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 88.5 | 94.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 76.5 | 102.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 71.5 | 86.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 63.5 | 103.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 61.5 | 61.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 72.5 | 28.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 75.5 | 31.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 63.5 | 68.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 59.5 | 72.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 71.5 | 34.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 58.5 | 91.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 58.5 | 51.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 37.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 80.5 | 46.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bijan Robinson's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Bijan Robinson has gone over his rushing yards prop in 9 of 17 home games (52.9% rate) with an 8-game under record. His home average of 73.76 yards consistently beats the typical 70.32 line by 3.4 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards home games?
Lean over on Robinson's home rushing yards props, but be selective. The +3.4 yard differential above lines provides value, especially during his current five-game over streak. Target competitive games with favorable weather conditions.
What's Bijan Robinson's average Rushing Yards home games?
Robinson averages 73.76 rushing yards in home games compared to his typical 70.32 betting line. This +3.4 yard differential represents consistent value, though the margins require careful game selection for profitable betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson rushing overs in home games where Atlanta projects to stay competitive and weather favors ground games. His five-game over streak and +3.4 yard home differential create the strongest betting opportunities currently.