Bijan Robinson's receiving yards props present a marginal edge with his 27.0 average exceeding typical lines by 3.0 yards. However, the 48.5% over rate and current 5-game under streak suggest recent market correction has tightened this advantage significantly.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's receiving profile reveals a tale of two seasons that explains his mixed prop performance. As a rookie, the former Texas standout averaged 4.6 catches per game while Arthur Smith's offense limited his aerial involvement. The coaching change to Raheem Morris brought increased passing game utilization, with Robinson's target share climbing from 8.2% to 11.4% in his second season. The 3.0-yard positive differential indicates consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers who initially struggled to price his dual-threat capability. However, the recent 5-game under streak coincides with tighter defensive coverage as teams began bracketing Atlanta's checkdown game. Robinson's receiving production correlates strongly with game script, performing best when the Falcons trail by 7+ points and Kirk Cousins looks underneath. The -7.4% ROI on overs suggests the market has largely corrected, though situational spots still offer value. His 27.0 average remains solid for a running back, but the consistency issues stem from Atlanta's inconsistent offensive identity and Robinson's snap count fluctuations in obvious passing situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 5-game under streak and negative over ROI indicate the market has adjusted to Robinson's receiving role. While his 27.0 average still exceeds most lines, the recent defensive adjustments and Atlanta's ground-heavy approach in positive game scripts favor the under. Target unders when Atlanta is favored or in low total games where rushing attempts increase.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 3.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 18.5 | 8.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 22.5 | 9.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 27.5 | 10.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 28.5 | 9.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 28.5 | 33.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 26.5 | 28.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 28.5 | 28.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 59.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 21.5 | 43.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 23.5 | 40.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 23.5 | 10.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 27.5 | 16.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 46.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 30.5 | 21.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bijan Robinson's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Bijan Robinson has gone over his receiving yards prop in 16 of 33 games (48.5%) with a 16-17-0 record. His average of 27.0 yards creates a +3.0 differential versus typical betting lines, though recent performance has cooled significantly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards all games?
Lean under on Robinson's receiving yards props. The current 5-game under streak and -7.4% ROI on overs indicate the market has corrected. Target unders when Atlanta is favored or in games with low totals favoring ground attacks.
What's Bijan Robinson's average Receiving Yards all games?
Robinson averages 27.0 receiving yards per game, which runs 3.0 yards above typical betting lines. However, this positive differential has diminished recently as oddsmakers have adjusted to his role and defensive coordinators have bracketed Atlanta's underneath passing game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson receiving yards unders when Atlanta is favored by 3+ points or in games with totals under 44.5. These scenarios favor rushing attempts over passing volume, limiting his checkdown opportunities that drive his receiving production in closer contests.