Baker Mayfield's rushing yards have consistently exceeded expectations over his last 10 games, hitting the over 60% of the time with a robust 6-4-0 record. His 23.2-yard average crushes the typical 14.1 line by 9.1 yards per game, generating +14.6% ROI for over bettors. This represents a clear market inefficiency worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Baker Mayfield's rushing production that the betting market hasn't fully recognized. His 23.2-yard average represents a massive 64.5% premium over the standard 14.1 line, indicating oddsmakers are consistently undervaluing his mobility. This isn't a small sample fluke—Mayfield has exceeded his rushing yards line in 6 of 10 games, with the differential suggesting books are pricing him more like a pure pocket passer than the scrambling quarterback he's become in Tampa Bay's system. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates real betting value, while the -23.6% under ROI shows the market punishment for fading this trend. Mayfield's current two-game over streak aligns with his season-long pattern of exceeding rushing expectations. The consistency is particularly notable given that rushing yards props are often volatile and matchup-dependent. However, regression concerns exist—no quarterback maintains a 9.1-yard average differential indefinitely, and Tampa Bay's offensive philosophy could shift if they build larger leads or face different defensive schemes. The lack of detailed split data limits our ability to identify optimal betting spots, but the overall trend strength suggests Mayfield's rushing props remain systematically undervalued by the market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 9.1-yard average differential and 60% hit rate indicate genuine market inefficiency in Mayfield's rushing props. Target overs when lines are set at 14-15 yards, particularly in competitive games where scrambling opportunities increase. The main risk is regression to the mean and potential scheme changes, but the sample size and consistency support continued value on the over side.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 19.5 | 23.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 11.5 | 68.0 | +56.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 15.5 | 2.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 15.5 | 42.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 13.5 | 25.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 11.5 | 29.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 3.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 15.5 | 20.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Baker Mayfield's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Baker Mayfield has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 6-4-0 over/under record. This 60% hit rate has generated +14.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors have suffered -23.6% losses.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on Mayfield's rushing yards. His 23.2-yard average crushes the typical 14.1 line by 9.1 yards per game, creating consistent value. The 60% hit rate and positive ROI indicate the market systematically undervalues his mobility.
What's Baker Mayfield's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Baker Mayfield averages 23.2 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to the typical 14.1 line. This creates a massive 9.1-yard differential, representing 64.5% more production than oddsmakers expect from the Tampa Bay quarterback.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mayfield rushing yards overs when lines are set at 14-15 yards in competitive games. His scrambling increases when Tampa Bay needs to extend drives, making close contests and potential comeback situations ideal betting spots for over wagers.