Baker Mayfield's rushing yards props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 47.1% overs across 17 games with a consistent +3.6 yard differential above market lines. The -10.2% ROI on overs versus +1.1% on unders reveals clear market overvaluation of his scrambling ability in Tampa Bay.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic market inefficiency in Baker Mayfield's home rushing props, where books consistently set lines 3.6 yards below his actual average of 15.35 yards. This creates a profitable under betting opportunity that has sustained across multiple seasons. The 47.1% over rate indicates books are pricing in more designed runs and scrambles than Tampa Bay's offensive system actually generates at Raymond James Stadium. Mayfield's rushing production stems primarily from broken plays and pocket escapes rather than designed quarterback runs, making his yardage highly variable and difficult to predict consistently. The home environment doesn't appear to influence his scrambling tendencies significantly, as Tampa Bay's offensive philosophy remains pass-heavy regardless of venue. The current two-game over streak represents normal variance rather than a systematic shift, especially considering the longer four-game under streak that preceded it. Most importantly, the negative ROI on overs (-10.2%) demonstrates that even when Mayfield does exceed his rushing line at home, the victories aren't frequent enough to overcome the juice, while under bettors have maintained slight profitability. This suggests the market continues to overestimate his mobility in home games, creating a sustainable edge for disciplined under betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 47.1% over rate combined with consistent line inflation creates a mathematical edge favoring under bets on Mayfield's rushing yards at home. Target this play when lines exceed 12-13 yards, as the market regularly overprices his scrambling ability in Tampa Bay's pass-first system. Primary risk is a single explosive scramble inflating his total, but the data suggests this occurs less frequently than books anticipate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 19.5 | 23.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 11.5 | 68.0 | +56.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 15.5 | 2.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 3.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 18.5 | 11.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 14.5 | 22.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 7.5 | 21.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 16.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 6.5 | -1.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 12.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 32.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Baker Mayfield's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Baker Mayfield has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 8 of 17 home games (47.1%), averaging 15.35 yards against lines typically set around 11.79 yards, creating a consistent +3.6 yard differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on Mayfield's rushing yards at home. The 47.1% over rate and -10.2% ROI on overs indicate the market consistently overprices his scrambling ability in Tampa Bay's pass-first offensive system.
What's Baker Mayfield's average Rushing Yards home games?
Mayfield averages 15.35 rushing yards in home games, consistently outpacing his typical line of 11.79 yards by 3.6 yards. However, this differential occurs in fewer than half his games, favoring under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target under bets when Mayfield's rushing line exceeds 12-13 yards at home, particularly in games where Tampa Bay is favored and likely to maintain their pass-heavy approach throughout four quarters.