Baker Mayfield has hit the over in exactly half his last 10 games (5-5-0), averaging 249.6 passing yards against a 243.5 line for a modest +6.1 differential. Despite the slight edge in yardage, both sides show negative ROI at -4.5%, suggesting market efficiency has caught up to any exploitable patterns.
Expert Analysis
The 50% over rate reveals a perfectly balanced market that's pricing Mayfield's passing output with surgical precision. His 249.6 average represents legitimate production, but the +6.1 differential over the line is too narrow to overcome standard -110 juice, explaining the negative ROI on both sides. The current two-game under streak follows his longest over streak of four games, highlighting the volatility inherent in quarterback props without clear directional bias. Tampa Bay's offensive system under Todd Bowles has created consistent but not explosive passing volume for Mayfield, who's settled into a game manager role that rarely produces massive outliers in either direction. The lack of meaningful splits data suggests his performance has been remarkably consistent across different game scripts and matchups. This consistency, while admirable for fantasy purposes, creates a challenging betting environment where the market has effectively neutralized any edge. The absence of weather, injury, or situational factors that typically drive prop value means bettors are essentially flipping coins on a quarterback who performs almost exactly to expectations.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record combined with negative ROI on both sides screams market efficiency. While Mayfield's +6.1 differential suggests slight over value, it's insufficient to overcome juice consistently. The two-game under streak might tempt over bettors, but without clear catalysts for increased volume, this prop lacks the edge premium subscribers demand.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 244.5 | 185.0 | -59.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 256.5 | 221.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 246.5 | 359.0 | +112.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 248.5 | 303.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 229.5 | 288.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 253.5 | 295.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 242.5 | 235.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 232.5 | 294.0 | +61.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 244.5 | 116.0 | -128.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 236.5 | 200.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Baker Mayfield's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Baker Mayfield has gone over his passing yards prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games (50%), with 5 unders, creating a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record that suggests efficient market pricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Baker Mayfield Passing Yards last 10 games?
Pass on Baker Mayfield passing yards props. The 50% over rate with -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates the market has this priced correctly, eliminating profitable edges for premium bettors.
What's Baker Mayfield's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Baker Mayfield has averaged 249.6 passing yards over his last 10 games, compared to an average line of 243.5 yards, creating a modest +6.1 differential that's too small for consistent profit.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid Baker Mayfield passing yards props entirely. The lack of situational edges, combined with balanced performance across all conditions, makes this a coin-flip proposition that favors the house through juice.