Baker Mayfield shows a profitable 57.7% over rate on passing touchdown props in conference games, averaging 2.0 touchdowns against typical 1.5 lines for a +0.5 differential. The 15-11-0 record over 26 games generates solid 10.1% ROI on overs. Lean over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Baker Mayfield's passing touchdown production in conference games reveals a quarterback who consistently exceeds modest market expectations. The 2.0 touchdown average against 1.5 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his improved red zone efficiency since joining Tampa Bay. Conference games typically feature more competitive matchups and higher scoring affairs, environments where Mayfield's aggressive downfield approach and chemistry with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin flourish. The +0.5 differential indicates genuine value rather than random variance, particularly considering the 26-game sample spans multiple seasons and defensive coordinators. The current four-game over streak aligns with his season-long trend of increased red zone targets to his top receivers. However, regression risk exists given the 57.7% hit rate, and conference opponents have more extensive film study on Tampa Bay's offensive tendencies. The -19.2% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's consistent undervaluation of Mayfield's touchdown upside in these divisional and conference battles where offensive coordinators often dial up more aggressive play-calling.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Baker Mayfield's 2.0 touchdown average in conference games consistently beats the typical 1.5 line, creating legitimate value with 10.1% ROI over 26 games. Target spots where Tampa Bay faces weaker pass defenses or potential shootout scenarios. Main risk is natural regression from the 57.7% over rate and increased defensive preparation in conference matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Baker Mayfield's Passing TDs prop record conference games?
Baker Mayfield's passing touchdowns prop record in conference games stands at 15-11-0, hitting the over 57.7% of the time across 26 games from September 2023 through January 2025, generating a profitable 10.1% return on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Baker Mayfield Passing TDs conference games?
Lean over on Baker Mayfield's passing touchdowns in conference games. His 2.0 average consistently beats typical 1.5 lines with 57.7% over rate and positive ROI, though regression risk exists given the strong recent performance.
What's Baker Mayfield's average Passing TDs conference games?
Baker Mayfield averages 2.0 passing touchdowns in conference games, which runs 0.5 touchdowns above the typical 1.5 line set by sportsbooks. This differential has created consistent value for over bettors across his 26-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Baker Mayfield passing touchdown overs in conference games against weaker pass defenses or potential high-scoring matchups. His red zone efficiency peaks in competitive divisional games where Tampa Bay's offense operates more aggressively.