Baker Mayfield's passing touchdown props present a compelling over opportunity, with the quarterback hitting 24 overs against just 12 unders (66.7%) over 36 games. His 2.08 average crushes the typical 1.5 line by 0.6 touchdowns per game, generating a robust +27.3% ROI. The current six-game over streak reinforces this trend's reliability.
Expert Analysis
Baker Mayfield has transformed into a touchdown-generating machine since joining Tampa Bay, consistently exceeding modest market expectations. His 2.08 touchdown average against a standard 1.5 line creates substantial value, particularly when considering the Buccaneers' aggressive red zone philosophy and Mayfield's improved decision-making in high-leverage situations. The 66.7% over rate isn't just statistical noise—it reflects systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers who haven't fully adjusted to Mayfield's resurgence in Todd Bowles' system. The quarterback's ability to distribute touchdowns across multiple receivers (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton) creates consistent scoring opportunities that translate to prop value. Most telling is the streak data: Mayfield's longest under streak spans just three games, while his current six-game over run demonstrates remarkable consistency. The -36.4% under ROI reveals how punishing fading this trend has become. While regression remains possible given the extended sample size, Mayfield's touchdown production appears sustainable within Tampa Bay's offensive framework, especially considering their pace of play and red zone efficiency metrics that support continued over performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Mayfield's 66.7% over rate and +27.3% ROI create legitimate betting value, particularly when lines remain at 1.5 touchdowns. The six-game over streak and consistent 2.08 average suggest oddsmakers haven't fully caught up to his touchdown production. Primary risk involves potential line adjustments or defensive-minded game scripts that limit passing opportunities in favorable matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Baker Mayfield's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Baker Mayfield's passing touchdowns prop shows a dominant 24-12-0 over/under record (66.7% overs) across 36 games from September 2023 through January 2025, generating a +27.3% return on investment for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Baker Mayfield Passing TDs all games?
Bet OVER on Baker Mayfield's passing touchdowns props. His 66.7% over rate and 2.08 average against typical 1.5 lines create consistent value, especially during his current six-game over streak with sustainable offensive system support.
What's Baker Mayfield's average Passing TDs all games?
Baker Mayfield averages 2.08 passing touchdowns per game across all situations, significantly exceeding the standard 1.5 touchdown line by 0.6 touchdowns. This differential creates substantial betting value for over positions in most matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Baker Mayfield touchdown overs when lines remain at 1.5, particularly in home games or favorable matchups. His consistent production within Tampa Bay's system makes him reliable regardless of opponent, with current form supporting continued over performance.