Anthony Richardson's rushing yards props present a marginal edge despite the 50% over rate. His 44.3-yard average beats the 40.2 line by 4.1 yards, but negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing. The minimal differential and recent inconsistency warrant a cautious approach.
Expert Analysis
Richardson's rushing production reflects the volatile nature of quarterback mobility props in today's NFL. While his 44.3-yard average suggests legitimate rushing ability that consistently exceeds market expectations by 4.1 yards, the -4.5% ROI on both sides reveals sharp line-setting that captures most of the value. The 5-5 over/under record masks significant variance, with Richardson's dual-threat capability creating legitimate upside in favorable game scripts. However, the Colts' evolving offensive philosophy and Richardson's development as a pocket passer could reduce designed rushing opportunities. His recent inconsistency, evidenced by alternating streaks of just 2 overs and 3 unders, suggests game-specific factors heavily influence outcomes. The lack of meaningful splits data prevents identification of exploitable situational edges. Richardson's rushing floor remains elevated due to scrambling ability, but the ceiling depends heavily on game flow, opponent strength, and Indianapolis's willingness to utilize designed quarterback runs. Market efficiency appears high given the balanced ROI, indicating oddsmakers have accurately priced his rushing variance.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Richardson's 4.1-yard average differential over the line appears promising, the negative ROI on both sides indicates sharp market pricing that eliminates most edge. The 50% over rate with balanced returns suggests efficient line-setting. Without clear situational advantages or meaningful recent trends, the minimal expected value doesn't justify consistent action on Richardson's rushing props.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 47.5 | 70.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 46.5 | 46.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 43.5 | 48.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 42.5 | 61.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 37.5 | 32.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 36.5 | 45.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 31.5 | 56.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 35.5 | 24.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 41.5 | 24.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 39.5 | 37.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Richardson's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Richardson has gone 5-5 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. He averages 44.3 rushing yards against a 40.2-yard average line, showing consistent ground production despite the balanced record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Richardson Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Pass on Richardson's rushing props. Despite averaging 4.1 yards above the line, both overs and unders show -4.5% ROI, indicating efficient market pricing that eliminates betting edge. The 50% hit rate offers no directional advantage.
What's Anthony Richardson's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Richardson averages 44.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 40.2 yards. This +4.1 differential shows he consistently exceeds expectations, though negative ROI suggests the market has adjusted accordingly.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid consistent betting on Richardson's rushing props due to efficient pricing. If forced to bet, target games with positive game scripts where Indianapolis trails and needs Richardson's mobility, but expect minimal long-term profitability given current market efficiency.