Anthony Richardson's rushing yards prop presents a classic case of market efficiency, with his 46.7% over rate (7-8-0) and minimal +0.6 yard edge over the line. The -10.9% ROI on overs suggests books have correctly priced his dual-threat ability. This is a PASS situation.
Expert Analysis
Richardson's rushing yards market demonstrates how quickly sportsbooks adapt to mobile quarterbacks. His 42.33 yard average barely exceeds the typical 41.7 line, indicating oddsmakers have accurately captured his rushing floor and ceiling. The negative ROI on overs (-10.9%) reveals that bettors consistently overvalue his scrambling ability, likely influenced by highlight-reel plays that don't reflect consistent volume. Richardson's rushing production stems from designed runs and scrambles when passing plays break down, but Indianapolis has shown restraint in exposing their young quarterback to unnecessary contact. The modest sample size of 15 games includes his rookie learning curve and injury recovery, periods when rushing attempts varied significantly based on game script and coaching philosophy. His recent 1-game over streak follows a longer 3-game under run, suggesting his rushing output fluctuates based on opponent strength and game flow rather than any predictable pattern. The tight clustering around the line indicates this prop rarely offers significant value in either direction, making it more suitable for same-game parlays than standalone wagers.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Richardson's rushing yards prop shows market efficiency with minimal edge in either direction. The -10.9% ROI on overs indicates public overvaluation of his mobility, while the small +0.6 yard differential suggests accurate line-setting. Without situational splits or clear patterns, this prop lacks the edge required for profitable long-term betting. Save your bankroll for higher-conviction plays.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 47.5 | 70.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 46.5 | 46.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 43.5 | 48.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 42.5 | 61.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 37.5 | 32.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 36.5 | 45.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 31.5 | 56.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 35.5 | 24.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 41.5 | 24.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 39.5 | 37.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 42.5 | 56.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 43.5 | 5.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 43.5 | 56.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 45.5 | 35.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 48.5 | 40.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Richardson's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Richardson has gone over his rushing yards prop in 7 of 15 games (46.7%) with an 8-7 under record. His average of 42.33 yards barely exceeds typical lines of 41.7 yards, showing tight market pricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Richardson Rushing Yards all games?
Pass on Richardson's rushing yards props. The -10.9% ROI on overs and minimal edge either direction indicates market efficiency. Without clear situational advantages, this prop lacks the value needed for profitable betting.
What's Anthony Richardson's average Rushing Yards all games?
Richardson averages 42.33 rushing yards per game, just 0.6 yards above the typical 41.7 line. This minimal differential demonstrates accurate oddsmaker pricing and explains the balanced 7-8 over-under record across 15 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Richardson's rushing yards props without additional context. The balanced record and tight margins suggest waiting for injury reports, weather conditions, or specific opponent matchups that could create temporary market inefficiencies.