Anthony Richardson has been a consistent under performer on passing touchdown props, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -0.3 differential versus the betting line. The rookie quarterback's development struggles and Indianapolis's ground-heavy approach create sustainable value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Richardson's passing touchdown struggles stem from fundamental issues that betting markets haven't fully adjusted for. His 0.8 average against 1.1 lines reveals books are still pricing him based on draft capital rather than current production reality. The Colts' offensive philosophy compounds this issue, as they've leaned heavily on Jonathan Taylor and short-yardage rushing situations near the goal line. Richardson's accuracy issues in the red zone, combined with his tendency to scramble rather than progress through reads, limits his touchdown upside significantly. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that's been slow to recognize his developmental timeline. His current two-game under streak aligns with the season-long pattern, and there's little evidence suggesting imminent improvement. The lack of a true number-one receiver further constrains his ceiling, as defenses can focus on limiting big plays without worrying about elite route-running creating easy scores. Richardson's rushing ability actually works against his passing touchdown props, as coaches often design QB runs in scoring situations rather than trusting his arm. This creates a systematic edge that should persist until either his accuracy dramatically improves or the Colts completely overhaul their red zone approach.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Richardson's consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates ongoing value, particularly when books set props at 1.0 or higher. The ideal spots come against stronger defenses that force Indianapolis into more predictable offensive sets. Main risk is a breakout performance against a depleted secondary, but his season-long struggles suggest regression to the mean favors continued under results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Richardson's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Richardson has gone 4-6-0 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. He's averaging 0.8 passing touchdowns per game while typical betting lines sit around 1.1, creating a -0.3 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Richardson Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Richardson's passing touchdown props. His 60% under rate and -0.3 average differential create consistent value, especially when lines are set at 1.0 or higher. The +14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable edge against inflated market expectations.
What's Anthony Richardson's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Richardson averages 0.8 passing touchdowns per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.3 touchdowns short of typical betting lines around 1.1. This significant gap between production and market expectations has created consistent value for under bettors throughout his rookie campaign.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Richardson passing touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, particularly against top-15 defenses that force Indianapolis into predictable offensive sets. Avoid betting after bye weeks or against bottom-tier pass defenses where variance could create outlier performances.