Anthony Richardson's passing touchdown props in conference games present a compelling under opportunity, with just 40% of his 10 games hitting the over while averaging 0.8 touchdowns against 1.2 lines. The -0.4 differential and +14.6% under ROI signal consistent value on the downside.
Expert Analysis
Richardson's conference game touchdown production reveals a quarterback still finding his rhythm in high-stakes divisional matchups. The 0.8 average against 1.2 lines isn't just bad luck—it reflects the reality of facing familiar defensive coordinators who've studied his tendencies extensively. Conference games typically feature tighter defensive game plans, and Richardson's dual-threat ability often translates to rushing touchdowns rather than passing scores in these contests. The Colts' conservative approach in division games, combined with Richardson's inconsistent accuracy under pressure, creates an environment where single-touchdown performances become the norm rather than the exception. His 40% over rate across 10 games shows remarkable consistency, suggesting this isn't variance but a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and on-field reality. The current two-game under streak aligns with historical patterns, as Richardson has shown longer under streaks (3 games) than over streaks in conference play. Sportsbooks continue to price his props based on overall season averages rather than the specific challenges conference opponents present, creating persistent value for disciplined under bettors who recognize the contextual differences.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Richardson's 0.8 conference game average creates consistent value against inflated lines, particularly when books set totals at 1.5 or higher. Target spots where the Colts face strong pass defenses or weather concerns amplify the edge. Main risk involves Richardson's rushing touchdowns being converted to passing scores if Indianapolis falls behind early and abandons their ground game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Richardson's Passing TDs prop record conference games?
Richardson is 4-6 on passing touchdown overs in conference games with a 40% success rate. He averages 0.8 passing touchdowns per game against typical lines of 1.2, creating a -0.4 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Richardson Passing TDs conference games?
Bet under on Richardson's passing touchdowns in conference games. The 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI provide clear mathematical edges, especially when lines are set at 1.5 or higher against familiar division opponents.
What's Anthony Richardson's average Passing TDs conference games?
Richardson averages 0.8 passing touchdowns in conference games compared to typical lines around 1.2. This -0.4 differential represents significant value, as he consistently falls short of market expectations in divisional matchups against prepared defenses.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Richardson passing touchdown unders when facing top-10 pass defenses in conference games or during adverse weather conditions. The edge is strongest when lines exceed 1.5 touchdowns, as his 0.8 average creates maximum value separation.