Anthony Richardson's passing touchdown props present a compelling under opportunity with a brutal 35.7% over rate across 14 games. His 0.79 touchdown average sits 0.4 below typical lines, generating a devastating -31.8% ROI for over bettors while under backers profit at +22.7%. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Richardson's touchdown struggles stem from a perfect storm of developmental issues and systemic factors. The second-year quarterback's 0.79 touchdown average reflects his inconsistent red zone execution and tendency toward turnovers in scoring situations. His 35.7% over rate isn't just bad luck—it's indicative of a player still learning NFL progressions and timing, particularly in high-pressure scoring scenarios. The Colts' offensive system has struggled to consistently create easy touchdown opportunities for Richardson, often settling for field goals when drives stall. Richardson's dual-threat ability actually works against his passing touchdown totals, as Indianapolis frequently opts for designed runs or scrambles near the goal line rather than trusting his arm. The -0.4 differential between his average and typical lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limitations, creating persistent value on unders. His longest under streak of three games demonstrates how quickly these props can cascade when a quarterback lacks consistent red zone chemistry with receivers. The 22.7% ROI on unders over 14 games represents substantial sample size validation, not a temporary cold streak.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Richardson's 0.79 touchdown average and 35.7% over rate create clear mathematical value on under bets, particularly when lines sit at 1.5 touchdowns. Target games where Indianapolis faces strong red zone defenses or when Richardson shows signs of pressing in crucial situations. The primary risk is positive touchdown regression as he develops, but his current skill set and the Colts' conservative approach near the goal line favor continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Richardson's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Richardson holds a 5-9-0 record on passing touchdown overs across 14 games, hitting just 35.7% of the time. His average of 0.79 touchdowns per game falls 0.4 below typical betting lines, creating consistent value for under bettors who've profited at a 22.7% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Richardson Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Richardson's passing touchdowns with medium confidence. His 35.7% over rate and -0.4 differential from lines create mathematical edges for under bettors. Target lines at 1.5 touchdowns against strong defenses, but avoid when Indianapolis desperately needs offensive production in must-win scenarios.
What's Anthony Richardson's average Passing TDs all games?
Richardson averages 0.79 passing touchdowns per game across 14 contests, sitting 0.4 touchdowns below typical betting lines of 1.2. This significant gap explains why over bettors lose money at -31.8% ROI while under backers profit consistently, making him a reliable fade candidate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Richardson touchdown unders when facing top-12 red zone defenses or in road games where the Colts typically play more conservatively. Avoid betting during potential shootouts or when Indianapolis trails significantly, as garbage time can inflate his touchdown totals and break the underlying trend.