Amon-Ra St. Brown's reception props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% of overs across his last 10 games while averaging 7.5 catches against 6.6 lines. The +14.6% ROI on unders signals a systematic mispricing by oddsmakers who continue overvaluing his target volume.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story of market inefficiency around St. Brown's reception totals. While averaging 7.5 receptions suggests solid production, the 4-6 over/under record reveals oddsmakers consistently setting lines too high at an average of 6.6. This +0.9 differential indicates St. Brown is beating his number regularly, yet the market hasn't adjusted appropriately. The -23.6% ROI on overs demonstrates how costly it's been to chase the big reception games, while under bettors have profited handsomely with their +14.6% return. What makes this trend particularly noteworthy is the current streak pattern - St. Brown just hit an over after three consecutive unders, suggesting natural variance rather than a fundamental shift in usage. The Lions' offensive evolution and target distribution likely explain this phenomenon. As Detroit has developed more weapons and refined their red zone efficiency, St. Brown's role has become more selective despite maintaining overall productivity. The market appears slow to recognize this shift, creating ongoing value on the under. The key question becomes whether this 10-game sample represents a new baseline or temporary variance, but the consistency of the under performance suggests systematic factors at play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +14.6% ROI on unders combined with the 60% hit rate creates legitimate value despite St. Brown's solid 7.5 average. Target unders when lines sit at 7+ receptions, particularly in games where Detroit projects to control pace or face strong pass defenses. The main risk is regression to his historical mean, but the current trend appears rooted in evolving offensive usage rather than random variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 14.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amon-Ra St. Brown's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
St. Brown has gone 4-6 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% while averaging 7.5 catches against 6.6 lines. Under bettors have enjoyed a +14.6% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions last 10 games?
Lean under on St. Brown's reception props. The 60% under hit rate and +14.6% ROI suggest the market consistently overvalues his target volume, creating systematic value on the under despite solid production.
What's Amon-Ra St. Brown's average Receptions last 10 games?
St. Brown averages 7.5 receptions over his last 10 games against an average line of 6.6, creating a +0.9 differential. This means he's beating his number regularly but still going under 60% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target St. Brown under bets when lines reach 7+ receptions, especially against strong pass defenses or in games where Detroit projects to control tempo and limit pass attempts through game script.