Amon-Ra St. Brown's receptions prop shows a modest home advantage with 52.9% overs hitting across 17 games. The 7.35 average versus 6.74 line creates a +0.6 differential, though the +1.1% ROI suggests limited value. This merits a lean over approach in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
St. Brown's home reception advantage stems from Detroit's offensive identity and Ford Field's controlled environment. The Lions' high-volume passing attack consistently targets St. Brown as Jared Goff's security blanket, particularly in dome conditions where weather never disrupts timing routes. The 7.35 home average reflects his role as the primary slot receiver in an offense that generates 35+ pass attempts per game. However, the narrow 52.9% over rate and minimal ROI indicate this edge is already priced into most lines. The trend shows moderate persistence with a recent over streak, but regression risk exists given the small sample size. St. Brown's reception totals correlate strongly with game script, making matchups against strong passing offenses particularly valuable as Detroit is forced to throw more frequently. The Lions' improved red zone efficiency has occasionally capped his volume in blowout wins, creating the primary risk factor. Home crowd energy and familiar surroundings enhance St. Brown's route precision, but the statistical edge remains marginal enough that selective betting based on specific game conditions becomes crucial for long-term profitability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.6 differential provides a legitimate statistical edge, though the modest ROI demands selectivity. Target this prop when Detroit faces high-scoring opponents or strong passing defenses that force volume. Avoid in projected blowouts where garbage time may not materialize. The home environment consistently benefits St. Brown's precision route-running.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 14.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amon-Ra St. Brown's Receptions prop record home games?
St. Brown hits the over on receptions in 52.9% of home games with a 9-8 record across 17 contests. His 7.35 home average consistently exceeds the typical 6.74 line, creating a +0.6 statistical advantage that translates to modest betting value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions home games?
Lean over on St. Brown's home receptions, but be selective with matchups. The statistical edge is real but narrow, making game script crucial. Target competitive games against strong offenses where Detroit will need sustained passing volume throughout four quarters.
What's Amon-Ra St. Brown's average Receptions home games?
St. Brown averages 7.35 receptions in home games compared to the typical 6.74 line, creating a +0.6 differential. This 9% advantage reflects his consistent target share in Detroit's high-volume passing attack at Ford Field's controlled environment.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities come in competitive home games against strong passing offenses where Detroit must throw consistently. Avoid projected blowouts either direction. The dome environment at Ford Field provides year-round consistency for St. Brown's precise route-running and timing with Goff.