Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving yards props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40% of overs across his last 10 games while averaging 93.6 yards against a 73.0 line. Despite the positive differential, the under delivers 14.6% ROI versus a brutal -23.6% loss on overs.
Expert Analysis
The surface numbers tell a misleading story with St. Brown's receiving yards props. While his 93.6-yard average significantly exceeds the typical 73.0 line by 20.6 yards, bettors backing overs have hemorrhaged money at a -23.6% clip. This disconnect reveals the classic trap of inflated lines that oddsmakers use to capitalize on St. Brown's reputation and the Lions' high-octane offense. The 4-6 over record demonstrates that books have effectively priced in his ceiling performances while the under has quietly delivered consistent profits. St. Brown's role as the Lions' primary slot receiver creates natural volatility - when Detroit gets ahead early or faces tough defensive schemes that limit intermediate routes, his yardage can crater despite heavy target volume. The recent streak pattern shows volatility with a longest under streak of three games, suggesting when he goes cold, it persists. The Lions' balanced offensive attack with multiple weapons means St. Brown doesn't need to be force-fed targets in every game script, creating natural regression spots that sharp under bettors have exploited for positive returns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders versus devastating -23.6% losses on overs creates a clear mathematical edge despite St. Brown's strong per-game average. Target under bets when facing elite slot coverage or in potential blowout scenarios where Detroit may lean heavily on the ground game to control clock and protect leads.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 76.5 | 137.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 84.5 | 77.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 72.5 | 60.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 71.5 | 70.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 193.0 | +124.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 69.5 | 43.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 70.5 | 73.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 74.5 | 62.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 74.5 | 161.0 | +86.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 67.5 | 60.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amon-Ra St. Brown's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
St. Brown has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate) with a 4-6-0 record. Despite averaging 93.6 yards per game, the under has been the profitable side with consistent returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on St. Brown's receiving yards props. The numbers show clear value with 14.6% ROI on unders versus -23.6% losses on overs, indicating oddsmakers are consistently overpricing his lines despite strong per-game averages.
What's Amon-Ra St. Brown's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
St. Brown averages 93.6 receiving yards over his last 10 games against a typical line of 73.0, creating a +20.6 differential. However, this positive gap hasn't translated to profitable overs, making unders the sharp play.
How reliable is this trend?
Target St. Brown under bets against elite slot coverage units or in games where Detroit projects as heavy favorites. His longest under streak of 3 games suggests momentum carries when game scripts limit his intermediate route opportunities.