Amon-Ra St. Brown consistently outperforms his receiving yards lines despite a misleading 48.6% over rate across 35 games. His 83.91-yard average beats the typical 77.1 line by 6.8 yards, creating value in the under market with superior -1.8% ROI versus -7.3% on overs.
Expert Analysis
The surface-level 17-18 over/under record masks St. Brown's true value proposition in the receiving yards market. His 83.91-yard average consistently exceeding the standard 77.1 line by 6.8 yards reveals systematic line inefficiency rather than random variance. This differential stems from St. Brown's role as Detroit's primary slot target in one of the NFL's most pass-heavy offenses, generating consistent volume regardless of game script. The superior under ROI (-1.8% versus -7.3% on overs) indicates the market overadjusts for his big-game potential while undervaluing his remarkable floor. St. Brown's streak patterns show moderate volatility with a longest over streak of four games and under streak of three, suggesting neither extreme sustainability nor complete unpredictability. The Lions' offensive system, which features St. Brown on quick-hitting routes and manufactured touches, creates a baseline production level that props often fail to properly account for. However, the negative ROI on both sides warns of efficient pricing in this heavily bet market, requiring selective timing and situational advantages to generate long-term profit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The superior under ROI (-1.8% vs -7.3%) combined with St. Brown's consistent 83.91-yard average suggests the market slightly overvalues his ceiling while underpricing his reliable floor. Target spots where his line inflates above 80 yards, particularly in projected shootouts where recency bias inflates expectations. Main risk remains Detroit's explosive offensive potential creating legitimate ceiling games.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 76.5 | 137.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 84.5 | 77.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 72.5 | 60.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 71.5 | 70.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 193.0 | +124.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 69.5 | 43.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 70.5 | 73.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 74.5 | 62.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 74.5 | 161.0 | +86.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 67.5 | 60.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 65.5 | 56.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 73.5 | 7.0 | -66.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 74.5 | 112.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 78.5 | 37.0 | -41.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 77.5 | 45.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amon-Ra St. Brown's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
St. Brown's receiving yards prop record stands at 17-18 over/under across 35 games, hitting the over just 48.6% of the time. However, his 83.91-yard average consistently beats the typical 77.1 line by 6.8 yards, revealing hidden value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards all games?
Lean toward betting under on St. Brown's receiving yards props. The under shows superior -1.8% ROI compared to -7.3% on overs, indicating the market slightly overvalues his ceiling while underpricing his consistent production floor in Detroit's offense.
What's Amon-Ra St. Brown's average Receiving Yards all games?
St. Brown averages 83.91 receiving yards across all games, which beats the typical prop line of 77.1 yards by 6.8 yards. This consistent outperformance of his lines creates underlying value despite the sub-50% over rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target St. Brown under bets when his line inflates above 80 yards, especially in projected high-scoring games where recency bias may overvalue his ceiling. His consistent slot role provides reliable volume regardless of game script or opponent.