Amari Cooper shows marginal over value in home games with an 8-7 over record (53.3%) and 3.67 average receptions versus the typical 3.5 line. The +0.2 differential and modest +1.8% ROI on overs suggest slight home field benefit. Lean over with low conviction given the narrow edge.
Expert Analysis
Cooper's home reception production reveals a subtle but consistent pattern favoring overs, though the edge is razor-thin. The 3.67 average against a 3.5 line creates just enough value to overcome juice, particularly when considering his role as Buffalo's primary possession receiver in familiar surroundings. Home games typically offer Cooper better rapport with Josh Allen, cleaner pocket conditions, and more comfortable route timing that translates to higher completion rates on short and intermediate targets. However, the modest 53.3% over rate and current two-game under streak highlight the volatility inherent in low-volume reception props. Cooper's home advantage appears most pronounced in games where Buffalo controls pace and leans on methodical drives, but regression risk looms given the small sample size and Buffalo's increasing reliance on their running game in recent weeks. The -10.9% under ROI suggests books may be slightly undervaluing his home production, but the narrow margins demand careful game selection rather than blind backing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 3.67 home average creates just enough value against the standard 3.5 line to justify selective over betting, particularly in games where Buffalo projects to throw frequently. Target spots where the Bills face pass-heavy opponents or trail early, forcing more volume through Cooper's reliable hands. Main risk is Buffalo's evolving offensive identity and Cooper's recent under streak potentially signaling a role shift.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amari Cooper's Receptions prop record home games?
Cooper has gone over his receptions prop in 8 of 15 home games (53.3%) with an average of 3.67 receptions. This creates a +0.2 differential versus the typical 3.5 line, showing slight home field advantage.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amari Cooper Receptions home games?
Lean over on Cooper's home receptions props, but be selective. The narrow 53.3% over rate and recent two-game under streak require careful spot selection rather than automatic betting.
What's Amari Cooper's average Receptions home games?
Cooper averages 3.67 receptions in home games, which is 0.2 above the standard 3.5 line. This modest differential provides slight value for over bettors but requires disciplined bankroll management.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper reception overs in home games where Buffalo projects high pass volume, particularly against strong rushing defenses or in potential shootout scenarios where the Bills need sustained drives.