Amari Cooper has hit over his receptions line in just 44.4% of conference games (8-10-0 record), creating a clear under edge. Despite averaging 3.83 receptions versus a 3.56 line, the under bet has delivered 6.1% ROI while overs lose 15.2%. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Cooper's conference game reception totals reveal a fascinating disconnect between raw production and betting value. While his 3.83 average sits comfortably above the typical 3.56 line, the market consistently overvalues his floor in these divisional matchups. The 44.4% over rate across 18 games represents meaningful sample size, and the -15.2% ROI on overs suggests books haven't properly adjusted to Cooper's inconsistent target share in Buffalo's evolving offense. Conference games often feature tighter defensive schemes and more conservative game scripts, factors that particularly impact possession receivers like Cooper who rely on volume rather than explosive plays. The Bills' tendency to lean heavily on their running game and short passing attack in divisional contests limits Cooper's ceiling, while his modest 0.27 differential above the line creates inflated expectations. Most concerning for over bettors is the sustainability issue - Cooper's role as Buffalo's WR2 behind Stefon Diggs means his target distribution varies significantly based on game flow and defensive coverage. The under trend appears structurally sound rather than variance-driven, as conference opponents have extensive tape on Buffalo's offensive tendencies and can better scheme to limit Cooper's opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.1% ROI on unders combined with a clear 56% hit rate creates actionable value, particularly when Cooper's line sits at 3.5 or higher. Target conference games where Buffalo faces strong pass defenses or weather concerns that favor ground-heavy approaches. Main risk is a potential target share increase if Diggs struggles or gets injured, but current usage patterns strongly favor the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 11.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amari Cooper's Receptions prop record conference games?
Cooper has gone over his receptions prop in just 8 of 18 conference games (44.4%), posting an 8-10-0 record. This 56% under rate across nearly two full seasons represents a significant edge for under bettors in divisional matchups.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amari Cooper Receptions conference games?
Bet under on Cooper's receptions in conference games. The data shows 56% under rate with positive 6.1% ROI, while overs lose money at -15.2%. Target lines of 3.5+ for maximum value in these defensive-heavy divisional contests.
What's Amari Cooper's average Receptions conference games?
Cooper averages 3.83 receptions in conference games compared to his typical 3.56 line, creating a +0.27 differential. However, this modest edge above the line hasn't translated to consistent over results, hitting just 44.4% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper reception unders in conference games when his line is 3.5 or higher, especially against strong pass defenses. Weather-impacted games and primetime divisional contests where Buffalo typically runs more conservatively offer the best under opportunities.