Amari Cooper delivers exceptional home value with a 56.2% over rate (9-7 record) and a massive +13.5 yards above his typical line. The 7.4% ROI on overs reflects consistent outperformance at home, making Cooper a reliable target when Buffalo plays in front of their crowd.
Expert Analysis
Cooper's home dominance stems from Buffalo's offensive rhythm in familiar surroundings and the crowd energy that elevates the entire passing attack. Averaging 58.31 receiving yards at home versus a 44.81 baseline line creates substantial value, particularly when oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his Buffalo integration. The 13.5-yard differential suggests Cooper benefits significantly from the Bills' home-field comfort, likely due to better timing with Josh Allen and more aggressive downfield targeting. However, the recent 2-game under streak indicates potential market correction, and Cooper's role within Buffalo's diverse receiving corps can fluctuate based on game script. The 16-game sample provides solid reliability, though his transition from Cleveland to Buffalo mid-career adds complexity to projecting future performance. Weather conditions in Buffalo can also impact passing volume, creating situational variance that sharp bettors must consider. The 7.4% ROI on overs demonstrates genuine edge, but the -16.5% under ROI warns against fading this trend without strong reasoning.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Cooper's 13.5-yard home advantage and 56.2% over rate create legitimate betting value, especially when lines haven't adjusted to his Buffalo role. Target overs in favorable weather conditions and when Buffalo projects for higher passing volume. The main risk is the recent under streak potentially signaling market correction or reduced target share.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 22.5 | 0.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 25.5 | 8.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 26.5 | 56.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 33.5 | 10.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 41.5 | 55.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 36.5 | 66.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 49.5 | 86.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 57.5 | 16.0 | -41.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 56.5 | 109.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 48.5 | 77.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 43.5 | 34.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 56.5 | 139.0 | +82.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 39.5 | 108.0 | +68.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 63.5 | 16.0 | -47.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 57.5 | 116.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amari Cooper's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Cooper posts a 9-7 over/under record (56.2% overs) in home games with a 7.4% ROI on overs across 16 games. He's averaging 58.31 receiving yards at home, significantly outperforming expectations and creating consistent betting value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amari Cooper Receiving Yards home games?
Lean over on Cooper's home receiving yards props. His 13.5-yard average advantage over typical lines and 56.2% over rate provide genuine edge, though recent under streak suggests some caution is warranted when evaluating current market pricing.
What's Amari Cooper's average Receiving Yards home games?
Cooper averages 58.31 receiving yards in home games compared to his typical 44.81 line, creating a substantial 13.5-yard positive differential. This consistent outperformance at home makes his over props particularly attractive in Buffalo.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper overs in favorable weather conditions when Buffalo projects for higher passing volume. Avoid during potential blowouts or heavy run-game scripts. His home splits suggest consistent value, but monitor recent usage trends before betting.