Alvin Kamara's rushing yards prop shows marginal over value with a 55.6% hit rate (15-12-0) and slight edge averaging 60.89 yards against 60.35 lines. The +6.1% ROI on overs suggests consistent line inefficiency, making this a lean over play in most situations.
Expert Analysis
Alvin Kamara's rushing yards trend reveals a subtle but persistent market inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit. The 55.6% over rate across 27 games represents meaningful value when combined with the +6.1% ROI, indicating oddsmakers consistently undervalue his floor. The 0.54-yard average differential seems minimal but compounds significantly over volume betting. Kamara's dual-threat ability creates unique rushing opportunities as defenses must account for his receiving prowess, often leaving favorable box counts. His patient running style and ability to break tackles late in plays frequently pushes him over modest rushing totals. The concerning factor is the recent two-game under streak, which could signal either variance or a shift in game script usage. However, the longest under streak historically spans just three games, suggesting strong mean reversion tendencies. The Saints' offensive identity remains tied to Kamara's versatility, and even in negative game scripts, his receiving work often sets up additional rushing attempts through screen passes and checkdowns that convert to rushing yards. The key risk lies in blowout losses where New Orleans abandons the run entirely, but Kamara's involvement in the passing game typically maintains his rushing opportunities even in trailing situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 55.6% hit rate combined with positive ROI indicates genuine market inefficiency rather than random variance. Kamara's dual-threat usage creates consistent rushing opportunities that books struggle to properly price. Target overs when lines sit at standard 60-65 yard range, but avoid inflated numbers above 70. Main risk is complete game script abandonment in heavy deficit situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 61.5 | 12.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 82.5 | 44.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 64.5 | 112.0 | +47.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 72.5 | 67.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 69.5 | 55.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 71.5 | 155.0 | +83.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 54.5 | 67.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 68.5 | 10.0 | -58.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 69.5 | 40.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 65.5 | 26.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 66.5 | 77.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 71.5 | 87.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 50.5 | 115.0 | +64.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 54.5 | 83.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 44.5 | 45.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alvin Kamara's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Kamara's rushing yards prop record stands at 15-12-0 over/under across 27 games, hitting the over 55.6% of the time. This represents a solid edge over the typical 52.4% break-even rate needed to overcome standard -110 juice.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards all games?
Bet over on Kamara's rushing yards props. The 55.6% hit rate and +6.1% ROI demonstrate consistent market inefficiency. Target standard lines around 60-65 yards while avoiding inflated numbers above 70 yards in premium spots.
What's Alvin Kamara's average Rushing Yards all games?
Kamara averages 60.89 rushing yards per game against typical lines of 60.35 yards, creating a slight but meaningful 0.54-yard edge. This small differential compounds significantly over volume betting, driving the positive ROI on overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kamara rushing overs when lines sit in the standard 60-65 yard range and the Saints aren't heavy underdogs. Avoid when New Orleans faces large deficits where game script could eliminate rushing attempts entirely.