Kamara's receiving yards props have been a goldmine, hitting the over at a 63% clip across 27 games with an impressive +20.2% ROI. His 37.37 yards per game average consistently outpaces the typical 32.72 line by 4.7 yards. This represents a strong lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Kamara's receiving yards success stems from his unique dual-threat role in New Orleans' offense, where he functions as both a traditional running back and a slot receiver. The 4.7-yard differential between his actual production and betting lines suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his pass-catching contributions. His 63% over rate indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic edge rooted in his skill set and usage patterns. The Saints' offensive scheme frequently utilizes Kamara on screens, checkdowns, and designed routes that generate consistent yardage even when the running game struggles. The +20.2% ROI over 27 games demonstrates remarkable sustainability, though the -29.3% under ROI warns against fading this trend. Kamara's versatility makes him matchup-proof in the receiving game, as defensive coordinators must account for his rushing ability first. The longest over streak of seven games shows this trend can run hot for extended periods. However, the sample includes games from different seasons and coaching situations, which could affect future reliability. Age and workload concerns for a veteran back also merit consideration, though his receiving skills typically age better than pure rushing ability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Kamara's 63% over rate and +4.7 average differential create a sustainable edge in the receiving yards market. His dual-threat usage makes him less dependent on game script than traditional backs, providing consistency across various scenarios. The primary risk lies in potential regression from the exceptional 20.2% ROI, but his skill set and role suggest continued over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 30.5 | 58.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 37.5 | 35.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 38.5 | 7.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 39.5 | 22.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 40.5 | 54.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 31.5 | 60.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 28.5 | 55.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 36.5 | 14.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 30.5 | 24.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 31.5 | 40.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 29.5 | 42.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 32.5 | 40.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 30.5 | 65.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 28.5 | 27.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 33.5 | 4.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alvin Kamara's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Kamara has hit the over on his receiving yards props in 17 of 27 games (63%) while going under 10 times. This 17-10 record generates a strong +20.2% ROI on over bets across the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards all games?
Bet the over on Kamara's receiving yards props. His 63% success rate and 4.7-yard average advantage over typical lines create a sustainable edge that's generated consistent profits for bettors.
What's Alvin Kamara's average Receiving Yards all games?
Kamara averages 37.37 receiving yards per game compared to typical betting lines around 32.72 yards. This 4.7-yard differential consistently favors over bettors and explains his strong 63% over rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kamara receiving yards overs when lines are set around his historical average of 32.72 yards or lower. His dual-threat usage provides consistency across game scripts, making most situations favorable for over bets.