Allen Robinson's reception props show a perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record across his last 10 games, with his 2.2 average falling just 0.2 receptions below the typical 2.4 line. The minimal -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing with no clear edge.
Expert Analysis
Allen Robinson's reception data reveals a player caught in the margins of Detroit's explosive passing attack. His 2.2 reception average against a 2.4 line represents the classic case of a veteran receiver whose role has diminished but whose reputation keeps lines slightly inflated. The perfectly even 5-5 split isn't randomness—it reflects Robinson's consistent but limited target share in an offense that spreads the ball among Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams. Robinson's reception totals correlate heavily with game script, as Detroit's frequent leads often reduce passing volume in favor of clock management. His longest streaks of just two games in either direction indicate he lacks the target consistency for reliable prop betting. The -4.5% ROI on both sides signals sharp money has already identified this as a fairly priced market. Robinson's advanced age and reduced athleticism mean he's primarily a red zone and possession target, making his reception totals highly dependent on specific defensive coverages and Lions' offensive game plans. Without clear situational edges or target share trends, this becomes a coin flip proposition that favors the sportsbook's built-in edge.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Robinson's perfectly balanced 5-5 record and minimal line differential indicate efficient market pricing with no exploitable edge. The veteran receiver's limited role in Detroit's diverse passing attack creates too much variance for consistent profit. Focus betting capital on players with clearer usage patterns or market inefficiencies rather than this essentially random proposition.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Allen Robinson's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Allen Robinson went over his receptions prop 5 times and under 5 times in his last 10 games, creating a perfectly balanced 50% over rate with no directional edge for bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Allen Robinson Receptions last 10 games?
Pass on Allen Robinson's reception props. The perfectly even 5-5 split and minimal line differential indicate efficient market pricing with no exploitable advantage for consistent profit.
What's Allen Robinson's average Receptions last 10 games?
Robinson averaged 2.2 receptions over his last 10 games, falling 0.2 receptions below the typical 2.4 line, indicating slightly inflated market expectations relative to his actual production.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Robinson's reception props consistently. His limited role and game script dependency create too much variance. Focus on players with clearer usage patterns and market inefficiencies instead.