Allen Robinson's reception props present a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record with minimal edge either direction. His 2.2 average sits 0.2 receptions below typical lines, creating slight under value. With negative ROI on both sides and limited sample size, this represents a marginal LEAN UNDER spot.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's reception data reveals a player caught between roles in Detroit's evolving offense. The 2.2 average against 2.4 lines suggests books are pricing him based on opportunity rather than actual production, a common trap with veteran receivers in new systems. The perfectly split 5-5 record indicates genuine uncertainty in his usage patterns, likely reflecting game script variance and his role as a complementary target behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. The negative ROI on both sides signals efficient market pricing, but the 0.2 reception gap below lines creates mathematical value on unders. Robinson's reception totals appear highly dependent on Detroit's offensive game plan and red zone opportunities, making him a volatile prop target. The lack of clear trending direction suggests his role remains fluid, with coaching staff adjusting his usage based on matchups and game situations. This uncertainty, combined with the slight under-performance versus lines, points to books potentially overvaluing his target share in a crowded Lions receiving corps.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with LOW confidence. The 0.2 reception deficit versus lines provides mathematical edge, while the 50% hit rate suggests books are pricing Robinson's opportunity rather than production. Target unders when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, particularly in games where Detroit projects to control pace. Primary risk remains game script variance and potential target spikes in high-volume passing games.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Allen Robinson's Receptions prop record all games?
Allen Robinson holds a 5-5-0 over/under record on reception props across 10 games, representing a perfectly balanced 50% hit rate with no pushes in the sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Allen Robinson Receptions all games?
Lean under on Robinson's reception props based on his 2.2 average sitting 0.2 below typical lines. The mathematical edge favors unders, though confidence remains low given the balanced record.
What's Allen Robinson's average Receptions all games?
Robinson averages 2.2 receptions per game compared to typical betting lines of 2.4, creating a 0.2 reception deficit that suggests books may be overvaluing his target opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson reception unders when lines reach 2.5 or higher, particularly in games where Detroit projects to control tempo and limit overall passing volume through game management.