Allen Robinson has been a consistent under performer in conference games, hitting just 40.0% of receiving yards overs with a brutal -4.5 yard average differential below the betting line. The 4-6-0 record across 10 conference games shows clear value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's conference game struggles reflect a deeper issue with Detroit's offensive deployment and his declining role within the Lions' receiving hierarchy. The 15.9 yards per game average against a 20.4 line represents a significant 22% underperformance that suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished target share in meaningful divisional matchups. Conference games typically feature more conservative game scripts and tighter defensive schemes, which has consistently worked against Robinson's big-play potential. The Lions' improved running game and Amon-Ra St. Brown's target dominance have pushed Robinson into a complementary role that rarely produces the chunk plays needed to cover inflated lines. His 60% under rate isn't just noise—it reflects systematic underutilization in games where Detroit focuses on ball control and limiting turnovers. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose market perception hasn't caught up to his actual usage patterns. While regression is always possible, Robinson's age and the Lions' offensive hierarchy suggest this trend has structural staying power rather than being a temporary blip.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's consistent underperformance in conference games reflects real usage limitations rather than bad luck, making the under side profitable at +14.6% ROI. Target unders when Detroit faces strong run defenses that could force more passing volume, as even favorable game scripts haven't helped Robinson exceed expectations. The primary risk is a potential target spike if other receivers face injury or the Lions fall behind early.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 13.5 | 36.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 11.5 | 21.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 29.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 30.5 | 8.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 34.5 | 24.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 30.5 | 12.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Allen Robinson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Allen Robinson's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
Robinson has gone 4-6-0 on receiving yards overs in conference games, hitting just 40.0% with an average of 15.9 yards against a 20.4 betting line. This represents a significant -4.5 yard per game differential below market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Allen Robinson Receiving Yards conference games?
Bet the under on Robinson's receiving yards in conference games. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on unders reflects his diminished role in Detroit's hierarchy during divisional matchups where game scripts favor conservative offensive approaches.
What's Allen Robinson's average Receiving Yards conference games?
Robinson averages 15.9 receiving yards in conference games compared to his typical 20.4 betting line. This -4.5 yard differential represents a 22% underperformance that has created consistent value on the under side across 10 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson unders when Detroit faces strong run defenses in conference games, as even pass-heavy game scripts haven't elevated his production. Avoid when multiple Lions receivers are injured, as increased target share could finally help him exceed expectations.