Alexander Mattison has been a consistent under performer in conference games, going just 4-14 over the total with a brutal 22.2% hit rate. His 32.56 rushing yards per game average sits 10.8 yards below the typical 43.33 line, creating a strong systematic edge for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Mattison's conference game struggles reveal a player consistently overvalued by oddsmakers who haven't adjusted to his limitations. The 10.8-yard differential between his actual performance and betting lines represents a significant market inefficiency that has persisted across 18 games spanning multiple seasons. His current seven-game under streak isn't an outlier but rather the norm—he's never strung together more than one over in conference play. The 57.6% negative ROI on overs versus 48.5% positive ROI on unders quantifies just how profitable this fade has been. Conference games often feature tighter defensive schemes and more familiar opponents, which appears to particularly impact Mattison's effectiveness. His role as a complementary back rather than a featured runner becomes more pronounced against division rivals who've studied his tendencies extensively. The sample size of 18 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency of the underperformance suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic issue with how the market prices his conference game props.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Mattison's 22.2% over rate in conference games represents one of the most reliable fade opportunities in the prop market. The 10.8-yard average shortfall creates immediate value on any line above 35 yards. Target unders when facing familiar conference opponents who've had multiple opportunities to game-plan against his running style. The primary risk is a potential role change or injury to other backs, but his consistent underperformance suggests the market systematically overvalues his conference game potential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 40.5 | 20.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 44.5 | 27.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 43.5 | 19.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 55.5 | 36.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 38.5 | 15.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 53.5 | 38.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 21.5 | 1.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 15.5 | 19.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 20.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 44.5 | 52.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 47.5 | 27.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 41.5 | 44.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 44.5 | 31.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-23 | OPP | 45.5 | 39.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 51.5 | 44.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alexander Mattison's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Mattison is 4-14 over the total in conference games with a dismal 22.2% hit rate. He's averaged just 32.56 rushing yards per game against a typical line of 43.33, creating consistent value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet the under with confidence. Mattison's 22.2% over rate and 10.8-yard average shortfall in conference games represents one of the market's most reliable inefficiencies. The seven-game under streak reflects systematic overvaluation.
What's Alexander Mattison's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Mattison averages 32.56 rushing yards in conference games, falling 10.8 yards short of the typical 43.33 betting line. This consistent underperformance has created a 57.6% negative ROI for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target unders when Mattison faces conference opponents, especially division rivals. His 48.5% positive under ROI is strongest against familiar teams who've had multiple opportunities to study his tendencies and game-plan accordingly.