Fade UNDER
5-8 O/U Record
38.5% Over Rate
-3.5u Units Won
-26.6% ROI
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Alexander Mattison's rushing yards props in away games present a clear edge for under bettors, with only 38.5% of totals going over across 13 games. His 41.92-yard average consistently falls short of the typical 43.58 line, generating a profitable -26.6% ROI on overs versus +17.5% on unders.

Expert Analysis

Mattison's away game struggles reflect the harsh reality of a backup-turned-starter operating in hostile environments without elite talent. His 41.92-yard average away from home tells the story of a player who lacks the explosive ability to overcome negative game scripts and tougher defensive fronts on the road. The -1.6 differential between his average and typical lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limitations in these spots. Road games amplify every weakness for running backs like Mattison who rely on volume rather than efficiency. Away teams often abandon the run earlier when trailing, and Mattison's 3.8 career yards per carry doesn't inspire confidence in high-leverage situations. The current three-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather the continuation of a pattern where Mattison consistently disappoints in the toughest spots. His 5-8 over record represents genuine statistical significance over 13 games, not random variance. The Raiders' offensive line struggles become more pronounced on the road, where communication breaks down and crowd noise disrupts timing. Mattison's pedestrian skill set gets exposed when he can't rely on home-field advantages or favorable game scripts.

Betting Verdict

LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mattison's away game rushing yards props offer legitimate value on the under, backed by a 13-game sample showing consistent underperformance relative to market expectations. The ideal spot is when lines sit above 42 yards, where his 41.92 average creates the biggest edge. The main risk is a blowout win where garbage time volume inflates his numbers, but his efficiency limitations make even that scenario manageable.

5 OVERS (38.5%)
8 UNDERS
0% 50% breakeven 100%

Performance vs Line

Game Log (Last 13 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result
2024-12-29 OPP 44.5 32.0 -12.5 UNDER
2024-11-17 OPP 43.5 19.0 -24.5 UNDER
2024-11-03 OPP 55.5 36.0 -19.5 UNDER
2024-10-20 OPP 38.5 92.0 +53.5 OVER
2024-10-06 OPP 53.5 38.0 -15.5 UNDER
2024-09-15 OPP 21.5 1.0 -20.5 UNDER
2024-09-08 OPP 15.5 19.0 +3.5 OVER
2023-12-10 OPP 49.5 66.0 +16.5 OVER
2023-11-05 OPP 41.5 44.0 +2.5 OVER
2023-10-29 OPP 44.5 31.0 -13.5 UNDER
2023-10-15 OPP 51.5 44.0 -7.5 UNDER
2023-10-01 OPP 56.5 95.0 +38.5 OVER
2023-09-14 OPP 50.5 28.0 -22.5 UNDER

Key Splits

Home vs Away

Home 50.0% Over
Away 38.5% Over

Favorite vs Underdog

Favorite 50.0% Over
Underdog 50.0% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 20.0% Over
Last 10 40.0% Over

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Alexander Mattison's Rushing Yards prop record away games?

Mattison's rushing yards props in away games show a 5-8 over/under record (38.5% over rate) across 13 games from September 2023 to December 2024. He averages 41.92 yards against typical lines of 43.58, creating consistent value on unders.

Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards away games?

Bet under on Mattison's rushing yards in away games. The data strongly supports this approach with a +17.5% ROI on unders versus -26.6% on overs. His road average falls 1.6 yards below typical lines, creating reliable betting value.

What's Alexander Mattison's average Rushing Yards away games?

Mattison averages 41.92 rushing yards in away games compared to typical lines of 43.58 yards. This -1.6 yard differential represents the core edge, as he consistently underperforms market expectations when playing on the road across 13 games.

How reliable is this trend?

Target Mattison rushing yards unders when lines exceed 42 yards in away games, especially against strong run defenses. His limitations become most apparent on the road where offensive line struggles and hostile environments compound his efficiency issues.

Methodology: This analysis covers 13 games from 2023-09-14 to 2024-12-29. O/U results use closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice. Pushes excluded from percentages.