Alexander Mattison's rushing yards props present a compelling under opportunity with just 29.2% overs across 24 games. His 37.58-yard average falls 5.8 yards short of typical 43.33 lines, generating +35.2% ROI on unders. The current six-game under streak reinforces this edge.
Expert Analysis
Mattison's rushing yards consistently disappoint because his role remains fundamentally limited despite opportunity. The 7-17 over/under record isn't random variance—it reflects systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers who price him as a featured back when he's actually a complementary piece. His 37.58-yard average versus 43.33 typical lines creates a persistent 5.8-yard edge that compounds over time. The Raiders' offensive struggles amplify this trend, as game scripts often force them into pass-heavy situations where Mattison becomes an afterthought. His six-game under streak demonstrates how this pattern persists even when given chances. The -44.3% ROI on overs tells the story: betting Mattison to exceed expectations has been consistently punishing. This isn't a talent issue but a usage reality. Even in favorable matchups, the Raiders' offensive limitations and Mattison's role as a grinder rather than explosive back keep his ceiling capped. The market hasn't adjusted to his true production level, creating sustainable value on unders. His floor remains decent enough to avoid total disasters, but the ceiling rarely materializes at the prices books offer.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mattison's 29.2% over rate and -5.8 yard differential create consistent value, especially with his current six-game under streak showing no signs of breaking. Target unders when lines exceed 40 yards, as his 37.58 average provides cushion. Main risk is a potential role expansion or game script shift that increases volume significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 40.5 | 20.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 44.5 | 32.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 44.5 | 27.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 43.5 | 19.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 55.5 | 36.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 38.5 | 15.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 38.5 | 92.0 | +53.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 53.5 | 38.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 24.5 | 7.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 21.5 | 1.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 15.5 | 19.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 20.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 49.5 | 66.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 44.5 | 52.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 47.5 | 27.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alexander Mattison's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Alexander Mattison has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 7 of 24 games (29.2%) with a 7-17-0 record. He's averaging 37.58 yards against typical lines of 43.33, creating a -5.8 yard differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Alexander Mattison's rushing yards props. His 29.2% over rate and +35.2% ROI on unders, combined with averaging 5.8 yards below typical lines, creates consistent value. His current six-game under streak reinforces this edge.
What's Alexander Mattison's average Rushing Yards all games?
Alexander Mattison averages 37.58 rushing yards per game across 24 contests. This falls 5.8 yards short of his typical 43.33-yard prop lines, creating a significant gap that consistently favors under bettors over this sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mattison rushing yards unders when lines exceed 40 yards, giving maximum cushion against his 37.58 average. Avoid during potential blowout wins where garbage time could inflate his numbers, but his limited role makes this scenario rare.