Alexander Mattison's receiving yards props present a neutral betting scenario with a 50.0% over rate across 18 games. Despite averaging 17.17 yards against a 13.72 line for a +3.4 differential, the -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests market efficiency has caught up to his receiving ability.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a fascinating case study in market adjustment. Mattison's 17.17-yard average significantly exceeds his typical 13.72 line, creating what appears to be consistent value on overs. However, the neutral -4.5% ROI on both sides tells the real story - sportsbooks have likely adjusted their lines throughout the season to account for his expanded receiving role. The 9-9 split across 18 games represents near-perfect market equilibrium, suggesting oddsmakers have found Mattison's true receiving floor and ceiling. His transition from Minnesota to Las Vegas likely created initial market inefficiencies as books struggled to price his usage in a new offensive system. The current one-game under streak following longer streaks in both directions (3 overs, 2 unders maximum) indicates typical variance rather than meaningful trend shifts. Without split data showing performance differences by opponent, game script, or situational factors, we're left with a player whose receiving production has been efficiently priced by the market. The lack of recent form data prevents identifying any late-season usage changes that might create new edges.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Mattison averages 3.4 yards above his typical line, the perfectly balanced 9-9 record and neutral ROI indicate the market has efficiently adjusted to his receiving role. Without situational splits to identify advantageous spots or recent form data showing usage trends, there's no clear edge on either side. Wait for more favorable lines or specific game conditions.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 6.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 29.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 12.5 | 50.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 0.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 29.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 13.5 | 23.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 0.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 49.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 15.5 | 2.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-23 | OPP | 17.5 | 3.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 28.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 15.5 | 20.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alexander Mattison's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Mattison has gone 9-9 on receiving yards overs across 18 games, hitting exactly 50.0% of his props. He averages 17.17 yards against a typical 13.72 line, showing consistent production above market expectations despite the balanced record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards all games?
Pass on Mattison's receiving yards props. The 9-9 record with -4.5% ROI on both sides shows the market has efficiently priced his receiving ability. Without situational edges or recent form data, there's no clear advantage on either side.
What's Alexander Mattison's average Receiving Yards all games?
Mattison averages 17.17 receiving yards across 18 games, which is 3.4 yards above his typical 13.72 line. This positive differential suggests consistent receiving involvement, though the market appears to have adjusted pricing accordingly based on the neutral ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Without split data available, optimal betting spots for Mattison's receiving yards are unclear. The balanced 9-9 record suggests waiting for unusually high or low lines, or identifying specific game scripts that might favor increased or decreased passing game involvement.