AJ Dillon's rushing yards props have delivered consistent value, hitting overs at a 60% clip over his last 10 games with a solid +4.8 yard differential above the betting line. The 14.6% ROI on overs suggests meaningful edge in a sample size that carries statistical weight. This trend warrants serious consideration for over bets.
Expert Analysis
AJ Dillon's rushing yards props present a compelling case study in market inefficiency during the back half of the 2023 season. The 42.1 yard average against a 37.3 yard line reveals oddsmakers consistently undervaluing his floor production during this stretch. This 4.8 yard differential isn't marginal—it represents genuine predictive value that translated into bankroll growth. The 60% over rate across 10 games provides sufficient sample size to establish pattern recognition, particularly when coupled with the strong positive ROI. What makes this trend particularly noteworthy is the sustainability factor. Dillon's role as Green Bay's power back creates inherent rushing opportunities that betting markets may underestimate, especially in game scripts requiring clock management or short-yardage situations. The lack of dramatic variance in his recent performances suggests a reliable floor that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to price. However, the modest current streak of just one consecutive over indicates this isn't a runaway trend prone to immediate regression. The absence of split data limits our ability to identify optimal betting spots, but the overall pattern suggests consistent undervaluation across various game contexts during this sample period.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 4.8 yard differential and 14.6% ROI provide legitimate mathematical edge, while the 60% hit rate over 10 games offers meaningful sample size. Dillon's role as Green Bay's primary power back creates consistent opportunities that markets appear to undervalue. Primary risk involves potential game script variations or increased competition for carries, but the underlying trend shows staying power worth backing selectively.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 24.5 | 27.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 27.5 | 12.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 49.5 | 73.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 46.5 | 43.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 27.5 | 29.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 27.5 | 70.0 | +42.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 31.5 | 40.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 42.5 | 11.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 38.5 | 61.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 57.5 | 55.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is AJ Dillon's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
AJ Dillon has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 60% over rate. He's averaging 42.1 rushing yards against a typical line of 37.3 yards, creating a favorable +4.8 yard differential for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on AJ Dillon Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on AJ Dillon's rushing yards props. The 60% hit rate, +4.8 yard differential, and 14.6% ROI on overs indicate consistent market undervaluation. The trend shows legitimate edge worth backing with proper bankroll management.
What's AJ Dillon's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
AJ Dillon has averaged 42.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games, running 4.8 yards above the typical betting line of 37.3 yards. This differential represents meaningful value that has translated into profitable over betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target AJ Dillon rushing yards overs when Green Bay faces opponents likely to require clock management or short-yardage situations. His power back role creates consistent opportunities regardless of game script, making most spots viable for over consideration.