Adam Trautman's receiving yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over his last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. Averaging 7.7 yards against an 11.2 line creates a consistent 3.5-yard edge. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Trautman's receiving yards trend reveals a player whose role has been dramatically overvalued by oddsmakers. The 3.5-yard average differential isn't marginal variance—it's systematic underperformance that suggests books haven't adjusted to his limited target share in Denver's offense. The 70% under rate across 10 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only brief two-game over streaks punctuating longer under runs. His longest under streak reached five games, indicating this isn't random variance but reflects his actual usage patterns. The +33.6% ROI on unders shows real profit potential, while the -42.7% over ROI warns against chasing positive regression. Trautman operates as a blocking-first tight end in an offense that spreads targets among multiple receivers, leaving him with sporadic involvement in the passing game. The persistence of this trend suggests oddsmakers are slow to adjust lines downward, creating a sustainable edge. However, bettors should monitor for potential role changes or injuries to other receivers that could increase his target share. The sample size of 10 games provides solid confidence, but Denver's offensive evolution under Sean Payton could eventually shift Trautman's involvement.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate and 3.5-yard average shortfall create a clear mathematical edge, supported by Trautman's limited role in Denver's passing attack. Target games where Denver faces strong defenses or projects to run more, as these scenarios further limit his ceiling. Main risk is a sudden role expansion due to injuries, but current usage patterns strongly favor the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 20.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 3.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 10.5 | 34.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 14.5 | 5.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 20.5 | 0.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Adam Trautman's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Trautman has gone over his receiving yards prop just 3 times in his last 10 games, posting a disappointing 3-7-0 record. The 30% over rate shows consistent underperformance, making this one of the most reliable under trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Adam Trautman Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Trautman's receiving yards props. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI over 10 games creates a clear mathematical edge, while his limited role in Denver's offense supports continued underperformance against inflated lines.
What's Adam Trautman's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Trautman averages just 7.7 receiving yards over his last 10 games, falling 3.5 yards short of his typical 11.2 line. This consistent shortfall represents a significant edge for under bettors in a large enough sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trautman receiving yards unders when Denver faces strong pass defenses or projects for heavy run usage. His blocking-first role becomes even more pronounced in these game scripts, further limiting his receiving opportunities and ceiling.