Adam Trautman's receiving yards props present a compelling under opportunity with just 27.3% overs across 11 games. The Denver tight end averages 7.0 yards against a 12.32 line, creating a -5.3 differential that has generated 38.8% ROI on unders. This is a strong fade candidate.
Expert Analysis
Trautman's receiving production tells the story of a backup tight end operating in Denver's run-heavy offensive scheme. His 7.0-yard average sits 43% below the typical 12.32 line, indicating consistent market overvaluation of his role. The 27.3% over rate across 11 games isn't a small sample fluke—it reflects systemic underutilization in an offense that prioritizes Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and the ground game. Denver's conservative passing approach under Sean Payton limits target distribution to secondary receivers, and Trautman's blocking responsibilities often keep him off the field in obvious passing situations. The 6-game under streak demonstrates how consistently the market misprices his involvement. His longest over streak reached just 2 games, suggesting even his better performances struggle to sustain elevated production. The -47.9% ROI on overs reinforces that betting his receiving props up is a losing proposition. Trautman's role as a complementary piece rather than a featured target creates a predictable ceiling that oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for, making his under bets particularly attractive in Denver's methodical offensive system.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Trautman's 7.0-yard average creates a massive 5.3-yard cushion below typical lines, while his 27.3% over rate demonstrates consistent underperformance. The market hasn't adjusted to his limited role in Denver's conservative passing attack. Target unders when lines exceed 10 yards, as his blocking duties and secondary status make higher totals nearly impossible to reach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 20.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 3.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 10.5 | 34.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 14.5 | 5.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 20.5 | 0.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 0.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Adam Trautman's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Trautman has gone over his receiving yards prop just 3 times in 11 games (27.3% rate) with 8 unders. His longest under streak reached 6 games, while his longest over streak was only 2 games, showing consistent underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Adam Trautman Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Trautman's receiving yards props. His 7.0-yard average sits 5.3 yards below typical lines, creating excellent value on unders with 38.8% ROI. The market consistently overvalues his limited role in Denver's offense.
What's Adam Trautman's average Receiving Yards all games?
Trautman averages 7.0 receiving yards per game compared to the typical 12.32 line, creating a -5.3 differential. This 43% gap below market expectations demonstrates how significantly oddsmakers overestimate his weekly production in Denver's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trautman receiving yards unders when lines exceed 10 yards, especially in games where Denver is favored and likely to run more. His blocking role increases in obvious running situations, limiting his receiving opportunities significantly.