Aaron Rodgers has been a consistent under performer on passing yards props, going just 4-6 on overs (40.0%) while averaging 223.4 yards against a 232.8 line average. The -9.4 yard differential and +14.6% ROI on unders signals a clear edge. Lean under on Rodgers passing yards.
Expert Analysis
The Aaron Rodgers passing yards trend reveals a quarterback operating in a constrained offensive system that consistently falls short of market expectations. Averaging 223.4 yards against lines averaging 232.8 represents a meaningful 9.4-yard gap that speaks to fundamental issues beyond simple variance. This isn't a small sample fluke—it's a pattern rooted in the Jets' conservative offensive approach and Rodgers's declining arm strength at age 41. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates genuine market inefficiency, as books appear slow to adjust to Rodgers's reduced volume in this system. His longest under streak of five games suggests the market took time to recognize this reality, creating sustained value. The recent over streak of just one game indicates any positive regression has been minimal. Most concerning for over bettors is that this trend persists despite varying game scripts and opponents, suggesting systemic rather than situational factors. The Jets' emphasis on ball control and Rodgers's risk-averse approach in his return from injury have fundamentally altered his ceiling. While regression toward career norms seems logical, the consistency of this underperformance suggests the market hasn't fully repriced Rodgers for his current context.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 9.4-yard average shortfall and 14.6% under ROI represent genuine market inefficiency that hasn't been fully corrected. Target unders when lines exceed 230 yards, as the Jets' conservative system and Rodgers's age-related limitations create a lower ceiling than books recognize. Primary risk is positive game script forcing increased volume, but the pattern suggests even favorable conditions haven't consistently pushed Rodgers over inflated lines.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 227.5 | 274.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 220.5 | 112.0 | -108.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 242.5 | 256.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 230.5 | 289.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 234.5 | 339.0 | +104.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 219.5 | 185.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 236.5 | 184.0 | -52.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 244.5 | 151.0 | -93.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 232.5 | 211.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 239.5 | 233.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Rodgers's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Aaron Rodgers has gone 4-6 on passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40.0% of over bets. He's averaged 223.4 yards while facing an average line of 232.8, creating a -9.4 yard differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Aaron Rodgers passing yards. The 14.6% ROI on unders and consistent 9.4-yard shortfall versus the average line creates clear value. His conservative system and age-related limitations make overs a poor investment at current market prices.
What's Aaron Rodgers's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Aaron Rodgers has averaged 223.4 passing yards over his last 10 games, falling 9.4 yards short of the average line of 232.8. This consistent underperformance relative to market expectations has created sustained value for under bettors throughout the sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Rodgers passing yards unders when lines exceed 230 yards, especially in neutral game scripts. Avoid when the Jets face significant deficits early, as garbage time volume can inflate his numbers and threaten the under despite systemic limitations.