Aaron Rodgers has quietly delivered value on passing touchdown props, hitting the over in 6 of his last 10 games with a +14.6% ROI. His 1.8 touchdown average consistently beats the typical 1.5 line by 0.3 touchdowns per game. This represents a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The 60% over rate tells only part of the story with Aaron Rodgers' touchdown production. What's compelling is the consistency of his 1.8 touchdown average against what's likely a 1.5 baseline, creating a meaningful 0.3 touchdown edge per game. This differential suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Rodgers finding his rhythm in the Jets offense after early season struggles. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates genuine value, not just variance. However, the modest 1.8 average reveals Rodgers isn't exploding for massive games but rather grinding out steady production. The alternating streak pattern (longest runs of just 2 games either way) suggests game-specific factors matter more than momentum. This points to a quarterback who's settled into a reliable floor rather than chasing ceiling games. The key risk is that 1.8 touchdowns per game represents a ceiling for this Jets offense, making the over bets dependent on game script and opponent quality. But with books potentially still pricing in earlier season pessimism, there's an edge in backing Rodgers' consistent touchdown production when the line sits at 1.5.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Rodgers' 1.8 touchdown average beating the typical 1.5 line by 0.3 per game creates consistent value, backed by a solid +14.6% ROI on overs. The best spots are games where the Jets project to be competitive or trailing, forcing more passing volume in scoring situations. Main risk is the modest ceiling - Rodgers isn't exploding for 3+ touchdowns regularly, making each bet dependent on hitting that narrow 2-touchdown sweet spot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Rodgers's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Aaron Rodgers has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 60% over rate. His 1.8 touchdown average beats the typical 1.5 line consistently, generating a +14.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Rodgers Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean over on Aaron Rodgers passing touchdowns props. His 1.8 average consistently beats 1.5 lines with a +14.6% ROI backing the value. Target games where the Jets will be competitive and need to throw in scoring situations.
What's Aaron Rodgers's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Aaron Rodgers averages 1.8 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, which beats the standard 1.5 prop line by 0.3 touchdowns per game. This differential creates the foundation for profitable over betting when the line sits at 1.5.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Rodgers touchdown overs when the Jets face competitive games or potential deficits that require passing. Avoid spots against elite defenses or likely blowout losses where game script limits his attempts in scoring positions.