Aaron Rodgers has been a touchdown machine in conference games, hitting the over in 8 of 12 matchups (66.7%) with an exceptional +27.3% ROI. His 1.83 average against a typical 1.5 line creates consistent value, making the over the sharp play.
Expert Analysis
The Aaron Rodgers passing touchdown trend in conference games reveals a quarterback who elevates his performance when divisional stakes matter most. His 1.83 average against the standard 1.5 line represents a substantial 0.33 touchdown edge that translates to real betting value. The 66.7% over rate isn't just impressive—it's sustainable given Rodgers' red zone precision and the familiarity factor that comes with conference play. When facing teams he sees twice yearly, Rodgers historically finds ways to exploit defensive tendencies, particularly in scoring situations. The +27.3% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't random variance but a legitimate edge rooted in preparation and execution. However, the sample size of 12 games demands caution, and Rodgers' age-related decline could impact future performance. The current streak of one over suggests recent form aligns with the broader trend, though the longest under streak of just one game indicates remarkable consistency. Conference games often feature tighter defensive schemes and more conservative game plans, yet Rodgers consistently finds the end zone through the air, suggesting his pre-snap reads and audible capabilities give him a decisive advantage in familiar matchups.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 66.7% hit rate and +27.3% ROI create clear value on Rodgers passing touchdown overs in conference games. His 1.83 average provides a meaningful cushion above typical 1.5 lines. Target this trend when Rodgers faces AFC East opponents where familiarity breeds opportunity. The main risk is regression from the small sample size and potential age-related decline affecting red zone efficiency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Rodgers's Passing TDs prop record conference games?
Aaron Rodgers has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 8 of 12 conference games (66.7% over rate) with an impressive 8-4-0 record. His consistency in divisional matchups has generated a strong +27.3% return on investment for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Rodgers Passing TDs conference games?
Bet the over on Aaron Rodgers passing touchdowns in conference games. The 66.7% hit rate and +27.3% ROI create clear value, especially when lines sit at 1.5 touchdowns where his 1.83 average provides meaningful cushion.
What's Aaron Rodgers's average Passing TDs conference games?
Aaron Rodgers averages 1.83 passing touchdowns in conference games, which is 0.33 touchdowns above the typical 1.5 line. This substantial differential explains the consistent over performance and positive return on investment for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Rodgers passing touchdown overs specifically in AFC East divisional games where his familiarity with opponents creates the strongest edge. Conference matchups twice yearly allow him to exploit defensive tendencies more effectively than against unfamiliar opponents.