Aaron Jones has hit rushing yards overs at exactly 50% over his last 10 games, averaging 62.1 yards against a 63.1 line average. Currently riding a three-game under streak after a three-game over run, showing alternating patterns rather than sustainable trends. The minimal edge and negative ROI on both sides suggests a pass.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Jones's rushing yards performance over the last 10 games reveals a perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under split that masks underlying volatility rather than consistency. The 62.1 yard average sits just one yard below the typical 63.1 line, indicating oddsmakers have accurately priced his recent output. The alternating streaks—three overs followed by three unders—suggest game script dependency rather than a fundamental shift in usage or effectiveness. Minnesota's committee backfield approach with Ty Chandler limits Jones's floor, while his receiving role provides additional value that doesn't translate to rushing props. The -4.5% ROI on both sides reflects the juice eating into any potential edge from this sample size. Without meaningful splits data showing specific advantageous spots, this appears to be a case where the market has efficiently priced Jones's recent range. The veteran back's role remains stable but capped, making this more about weekly game flow than predictable trends. Sharp bettors should recognize when a prop lacks edge despite surface-level patterns.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate no meaningful edge exists in Aaron Jones's current rushing yards market. While the three-game under streak might suggest regression potential, the alternating pattern points to game script variance rather than sustainable trends. Without clear situational advantages or line value, this prop lacks the edge premium subscribers should target.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 59.5 | 48.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 59.5 | 45.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 63.5 | 47.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 67.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 63.5 | 86.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 60.5 | 73.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 66.5 | 22.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 60.5 | 106.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 62.5 | 39.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 71.5 | 88.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Jones's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Aaron Jones has gone 5-5 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 62.1 yards against lines averaging 63.1 yards, showing perfectly balanced results.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Jones Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Pass on Aaron Jones rushing yards props based on recent trends. The 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate no edge, making this a coin flip with juice working against you.
What's Aaron Jones's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Aaron Jones has averaged 62.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games, running 1.0 yard below the average line of 63.1 yards, indicating oddsmakers have accurately priced his recent output level.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid Aaron Jones rushing yards props until clearer edges emerge. The current alternating streak patterns and balanced results suggest waiting for specific game script advantages or line value rather than betting recent trends.