Aaron Jones shows a slight over tendency at 51.7% (15-14-0 record) with a meaningful +9.4 yard differential above his typical line. However, negative ROI on both sides (-1.2% over, -7.8% under) and a current 3-game under streak suggest the market has adjusted efficiently to his production patterns.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Jones's rushing yards props present a fascinating case study in market efficiency despite surface-level over trends. His 68.86-yard average consistently outpaces the typical 59.43 line by 9.4 yards, which initially suggests strong over value. However, the negative ROI on both sides reveals that sportsbooks have calibrated their lines effectively, accounting for Jones's tendency to exceed baseline expectations. The veteran running back's production has been remarkably consistent across 29 games, but the recent 3-game under streak indicates potential regression or market adjustment. Jones's move to Minnesota has maintained his role as a primary back, but the Vikings' offensive philosophy and game script dependencies create volatility that the betting market appears to price accurately. The lack of significant split advantages suggests his production remains relatively stable across different conditions, making this more about finding specific game-script spots rather than systematic edges. The longest over streak of 6 games demonstrates his ceiling potential, while the current under run shows his floor risk.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Aaron Jones averages 9.4 yards above his typical line, the negative ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing. The current 3-game under streak and lack of clear split advantages make this a coin-flip proposition without edge. Wait for specific game scripts or inflated lines rather than betting the trend systematically.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 59.5 | 48.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 59.5 | 45.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 63.5 | 47.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 67.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 63.5 | 86.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 60.5 | 73.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 66.5 | 22.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 60.5 | 106.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 62.5 | 39.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 71.5 | 88.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 73.5 | 64.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 68.5 | 58.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 53.5 | 93.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 65.5 | 29.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 59.5 | 93.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Jones's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Aaron Jones has gone over his rushing yards prop 15 times and under 14 times across 29 games, posting a 51.7% over rate. His average of 68.86 yards consistently beats the typical 59.43 line by 9.4 yards per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Jones Rushing Yards all games?
Pass on systematic betting of Aaron Jones rushing yards props. Despite his 51.7% over rate and +9.4 yard differential, negative ROI on both sides shows the market prices him efficiently, eliminating consistent edge.
What's Aaron Jones's average Rushing Yards all games?
Aaron Jones averages 68.86 rushing yards per game across 29 contests, which beats his typical prop line of 59.43 yards by a substantial 9.4-yard margin, indicating consistent production above market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Wait for game-script dependent spots rather than betting Jones systematically. Target games where Minnesota projects to lead or face weak run defenses, as his consistent baseline production offers better over value in favorable conditions.