New England Patriots Favorite After 3+ Game Losing Streak Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the New England Patriots in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the New England Patriots are just 15-30-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -36.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +36.4%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2017 | 2-6-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2018 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2019 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2022 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2023 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2024 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Patriots' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks reveal a fascinating psychological dynamic that plagued even the most successful NFL franchise. When New England found itself in unfamiliar territory with three consecutive losses, the team often faced inflated betting lines that reflected their historical dominance rather than their current form. The Patriots built their dynasty on meticulous preparation and emotional control, but extended adversity exposed cracks in their typically unflappable system. During these rare rough patches, opposing teams gained confidence knowing they were facing a vulnerable Patriots squad, while New England's own players and coaching staff sometimes pressed too hard to immediately return to championship form. The Belichick era Patriots were masters of incremental improvement, but public perception and betting markets were slow to adjust when the machine showed signs of wear. This created consistent value on the underdog side, as oddsmakers overcompensated for New England's reputation. Smart bettors should consider fading the Patriots as chalk whenever they're coming off three straight losses, particularly in divisional matchups where opponents have extra motivation. This trend carries the most weight in December and January, when playoff implications amplify the pressure and every possession becomes magnified.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the New England Patriots's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?
The New England Patriots have gone 15-30-0 against the spread (ATS) when favored after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents a 33.3% ATS win rate over 45 games.
Is betting on the New England Patriots as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?
No, betting on the Patriots as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks has been highly unprofitable with a -36.4% ROI. This trend shows consistent underperformance against expectations when New England is expected to bounce back.
How does this compare to the league average?
This 33.3% ATS rate is significantly below the typical 50% league average for spread betting. The Patriots have been one of the worst teams to back in this specific situation over the past decade.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.