The data suggests caution when backing the New England Patriots in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the New England Patriots are just 10-23-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -42.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +42.1%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record10-23-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size33 games
ROI-42.1%
Units Won-13.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20150-2-00.0%-100.0%
20161-3-00.0%-52.3%
20171-5-00.0%-68.2%
20182-2-00.0%-4.5%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20201-2-00.0%-36.4%
20221-2-00.0%-36.4%
20232-3-00.0%-23.6%
20242-2-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Patriots' struggles as road favorites stem from the inherent difficulty of being consistently overvalued by oddsmakers during their dynasty years. When New England traveled as favorites, they often faced desperate opponents playing with house money, creating the perfect storm for underperformance against the spread. The Patriots' methodical, ball-control approach that dominated at home in Foxborough didn't always translate to hostile road environments where they couldn't dictate pace and field position as effectively. New England's road favorite woes also reflect the psychological burden of expectations. Teams facing the Patriots at home during their peak years knew they had nothing to lose and everything to gain, leading to inspired performances that kept games closer than the betting line suggested. The Patriots' conservative approach in road games, prioritizing ball security over explosive plays, often resulted in workmanlike victories that failed to cover inflated spreads. The most actionable insight for bettors is recognizing when public perception inflates a team's road number beyond their true road capabilities. Elite teams often get overvalued in unfamiliar environments where their systematic advantages diminish. This trend matters most when backing established powerhouse franchises laying significant points on the road, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds competitive games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New England Patriots's ATS record as away favorite?

The New England Patriots have a 10-23-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in just 30.3% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances for any team in this specific situation.

Is betting on the New England Patriots as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the New England Patriots as away favorites is not profitable, with a -42.1% ROI over the past decade. Bettors would have lost approximately 42 cents for every dollar wagered on Patriots away favorites.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as away favorites typically cover around 48-52% of the time. The Patriots' 30.3% cover rate as away favorites is well below this standard range.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.