The public often underestimates the New England Patriots in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away underdog after a win, the New England Patriots hold a record of 11-6-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +23.5% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $4 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record11-6-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size17 games
ROI+23.5%
Units Won+4.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20162-1-00.0%+27.3%
20192-1-00.0%+27.3%
20202-0-00.0%+90.9%
20212-0-00.0%+90.9%
20221-1-00.0%-4.5%
20231-0-00.0%+90.9%
20241-2-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Patriots' success as road underdogs following victories stems from their organizational culture of maintaining focus regardless of external expectations. Bill Belichick's teams have historically thrived when disrespected by oddsmakers, using underdog status as motivation even after positive momentum from a recent win. This psychological edge becomes amplified on the road, where New England's veteran leadership and systematic preparation typically shine brightest. The franchise's ability to avoid the emotional letdown that often follows victories reflects their "Do Your Job" mentality and emphasis on process over results. When playing away from home as underdogs after wins, the Patriots benefit from reduced pressure while maintaining the confidence boost from their previous success. Their disciplined approach to game planning allows them to exploit opponents who may overlook them based on betting lines rather than actual team strength. The combination of motivational fuel from underdog status and sustained momentum from recent success creates an ideal psychological environment for New England to exceed expectations. Bettors should particularly target this spot when the Patriots face divisional opponents or teams coming off emotional victories, as the contrast in preparation and motivation becomes most pronounced in these scenarios.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New England Patriots's ATS record as away underdog after a win?

The New England Patriots have an 11-6-0 ATS record as away underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to a 64.7% ATS win rate over 17 games.

Is betting on the New England Patriots as away underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Patriots as away underdogs after a win has been profitable with a 23.5% ROI. Despite the strong ATS performance, the team went 0-17 straight up in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 64.7% ATS win rate significantly outperforms the typical 50% expectation for spread betting. The 23.5% ROI indicates exceptional value in this specific situational spot for the Patriots.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.