Minnesota Vikings As Favorite Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Minnesota Vikings in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Minnesota Vikings are just 25-27-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2015 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2016 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2017 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2019 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 2-4-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2021 | 2-4-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2022 | 4-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2023 | 4-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Vikings' struggles as favorites stem from their historically volatile identity as a franchise that excels when playing with house money but crumbles under expectation. Minnesota has long been characterized by explosive offensive capabilities paired with defensive inconsistencies, creating a team profile that performs better when opponents underestimate them rather than when they're expected to control games. This psychological dynamic manifests most clearly in their approach to game management. When favored, the Vikings often abandon the aggressive play-calling that makes them dangerous, instead trying to protect leads with conservative strategies that don't suit their personnel. Their offensive line limitations become more exposed when opponents can focus on stopping the run and forcing Kirk Cousins into uncomfortable pocket situations, while their secondary's tendency toward big plays cuts both ways - creating turnovers when hunting but yielding explosive gains when playing not to lose. The recent uptick suggests some maturation under Kevin O'Connell's offensive system, but the underlying roster construction still favors variance over consistency. Bettors should be particularly cautious backing Minnesota as home favorites in divisional games, where familiarity breeds contempt and the pressure to perform reaches its peak.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Minnesota Vikings's ATS record as as favorite?
The Minnesota Vikings have a 25-27-0 ATS record when favored from 2014-2024. This represents a 48.1% cover rate over 52 games as favorites.
Is betting on the Minnesota Vikings as as favorite profitable?
No, betting on the Minnesota Vikings as favorites has not been profitable. The team shows a -8.2% ROI, meaning bettors would have lost money consistently backing them when favored.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Vikings' 48.1% ATS cover rate as favorites is slightly below the expected 50% baseline. Their -8.2% ROI indicates underperformance compared to typical NFL favorite betting expectations.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.