The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Dolphins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs non-conference opponent, the Miami Dolphins are just 15-26-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -30.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +30.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record15-26-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size41 games
ROI-30.2%
Units Won-12.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20151-4-00.0%-61.8%
20164-2-00.0%+27.3%
20171-5-00.0%-68.2%
20180-4-00.0%-100.0%
20193-3-00.0%-4.5%
20202-1-00.0%+27.3%
20211-1-00.0%-4.5%
20221-3-00.0%-52.3%
20230-2-00.0%-100.0%
20242-1-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Dolphins' struggles against non-conference opponents stem from their organizational instability and coaching inconsistency over this period. Miami has cycled through multiple head coaches and defensive coordinators, creating a franchise that lacks the systematic preparation needed to handle unfamiliar opponents with different offensive philosophies. When facing AFC East rivals, the Dolphins benefit from extensive film study and twice-yearly matchups, but non-conference games expose their coaching staff's inability to make effective in-game adjustments against schemes they rarely encounter. Miami's roster construction has consistently prioritized speed and finesse players suited for warm-weather dome games and their home field advantage, but these personnel choices often backfire when traveling to different climates and facing more physical NFC teams. The franchise's perpetual rebuilding cycle means they frequently enter non-conference matchups with incomplete rosters and players still learning new systems. The psychological element cannot be ignored either - Miami players often view non-conference games as less meaningful than division contests, leading to inconsistent effort levels and preparation. This mental approach becomes particularly problematic when the team is already struggling with confidence issues. Bettors should be most cautious backing Miami in non-conference road games, especially against well-coached NFC opponents with established identities, where the Dolphins' preparation deficiencies become most apparent.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Dolphins's ATS record as vs non-conference opponent?

The Miami Dolphins have a 15-26-0 ATS record when facing non-conference opponents from 2014-2024. This represents a poor 36.6% ATS win rate over 41 games.

Is betting on the Miami Dolphins as vs non-conference opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Miami Dolphins against non-conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -30.2% ROI. This means bettors would have lost approximately 30 cents for every dollar wagered over this period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as the Dolphins' 36.6% ATS win rate falls well below the typical 50% expectation. The -30.2% ROI indicates substantial underperformance compared to standard betting outcomes.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.