The data suggests caution when backing the Las Vegas Raiders in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home after 2+ losses, the Las Vegas Raiders are just 17-26-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -24.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +24.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record17-26-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size43 games
ROI-24.5%
Units Won-10.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-2-00.0%-100.0%
20152-4-00.0%-36.4%
20162-0-00.0%+90.9%
20172-1-00.0%+27.3%
20182-2-00.0%-4.5%
20192-2-00.0%-4.5%
20201-3-00.0%-52.3%
20212-5-00.0%-45.5%
20221-2-00.0%-36.4%
20232-3-00.0%-23.6%
20241-2-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Raiders' struggles at home following consecutive losses stem from a franchise culture that has historically amplified pressure rather than channeling it productively. Unlike teams with stable organizational structures, the Raiders have cycled through coaches and systems frequently since their move to Las Vegas, creating an environment where adversity compounds rather than galvanizes. When facing the spotlight of their home crowd after multiple defeats, this instability manifests as tightened play-calling and hesitant execution. The team's defensive identity, built around aggressive pass rushing and risk-taking in the secondary, becomes particularly vulnerable when playing from behind emotionally. Coordinators tend to abandon their attacking philosophy in favor of conservative approaches that play directly into opponents' hands. The Raiders' offensive line, often a weak point throughout this period, struggles even more under the weight of home expectations, leading to rushed possessions and predictable game plans. Smart bettors should view Raiders home games following back-to-back losses as prime fade opportunities, particularly when they're favored by more than a field goal. The combination of public backing and internal pressure creates inflated lines that rarely reflect the team's true capabilities in these spots. This trend carries the most weight in divisional matchups and primetime games where the pressure amplifies exponentially.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Las Vegas Raiders's ATS record as home after 2+ losses?

The Las Vegas Raiders have an ATS record of 17-26-0 when playing at home after suffering 2 or more consecutive losses from 2014-2024. This translates to a 39.5% ATS win rate over 43 games.

Is betting on the Las Vegas Raiders as home after 2+ losses profitable?

No, betting on the Raiders at home after 2+ losses is not profitable, showing a -24.5% ROI. This poor performance indicates consistent failure to cover the spread in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 39.5% ATS win rate is significantly below the expected 50% league average for spread betting. The Raiders have been particularly poor in bounce-back situations at home, making them a fade candidate in this spot.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.