The data suggests caution when backing the Las Vegas Raiders in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Las Vegas Raiders are just 10-32-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -54.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +54.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record10-32-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size42 games
ROI-54.5%
Units Won-22.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-3-00.0%-100.0%
20150-5-00.0%-100.0%
20161-3-00.0%-52.3%
20171-4-00.0%-61.8%
20181-2-00.0%-36.4%
20191-2-00.0%-36.4%
20202-4-00.0%-36.4%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20231-2-00.0%-36.4%
20240-3-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Raiders' dismal performance as favorites following extended losing streaks reveals a franchise caught between inflated expectations and systemic dysfunction. When Las Vegas enters these situations, oddsmakers often overvalue their talent on paper while underestimating the psychological weight of organizational instability that has plagued the team for decades. The core issue stems from the Raiders' inability to establish consistent leadership and culture during adversity. Unlike disciplined organizations that rally around strong coaching systems, Las Vegas tends to fracture when facing adversity. Players begin pressing to make individual plays rather than executing within the game plan, while coaching staffs often abandon their identity in desperate attempts to spark the team. This creates a compounding effect where the more pressure mounts as favorites, the more likely they are to underperform. The Raiders' transient nature - both in location and personnel - has prevented the development of championship-level mental toughness. Star players often arrive with expectations of immediate success, but when faced with the grind of a losing streak, they struggle to maintain focus against supposedly inferior opponents. This trend carries the most weight when the Raiders are laying more than a field goal at home, where fan expectations amplify the psychological pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Las Vegas Raiders's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Las Vegas Raiders have a 10-32-0 ATS record when favored after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents a 23.8% ATS win rate over 42 games.

Is betting on the Las Vegas Raiders as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Raiders as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks has been highly unprofitable with a -54.5% ROI. They have failed to cover the spread in 76% of these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the typical NFL team average of around 50% ATS. The Raiders' 23.8% ATS rate in this situation represents one of the worst trends in the league over this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.